These were the events of importance in Gorilla’s world this week:
*The rethink about Afghanistan goes on. The Administration is caught between a rock (Afghanistan is sinking back into civil war) and a hard place (the terrorists we want to stop aren’t in Afghanistan, they’re in Pakistan and we can’t just go get ‘em). Gorilla believes there will be a few more troops announced, so as to quiet the Know Nothing Party, but that we’ll be on the road to withdrawl by the end of 2010.
*The US economy remains stalled. Many believe the bottom has been hit, but unemployment remains high (and will likely rise), the housing crash goes on (a wave of foreclosures in both residential and CRE is coming), and the need for lots more stimulus, particularly an extension of benefits and aid to the states, remains acute. Gorilla thinks our leaders are pissing into the wind, but eventually they’ll get around to doing something useful in terms of direct stimulus (and wasteful in terms of more tax cuts) before the year is out.
*The UN’s climate change talks are stalled. The US is not really serious about climate change. Beyond the rhetoric, there just aren’t the votes in Congress for a carbon tax, which would be the quickest way to reduce global warming and encourage alternative technologies. This also benefits our fellow polluters in China and the EU, since they don’t have to do anything serious until we do. Gorilla suggests that even cap and trade is a political non-starter and nothing much will be done on the issue over the next 12-18 months.
*Health care reform moves slowly but surely to the end game. The newest gimmick, an opt-out for states from a national public insurance option, may finally get something passed, but the fact remains that these plans do not cover all Americans and do nothing very much about containing the power and expense of insurance companies, doctors, and Big Pharma. Gorilla says there’ll be a bill, with some kind of phony public option, and we’ll really get around to doing something more serious about health care in 2015-20.
*Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. It’s a good thing for America, although the Know Nothing Party will no doubt experience apoplexy. Gorilla believes the neocon era of unilateralism, fear and greed is drawing to a close, but is not certain that peace per se will be the replacement; it’s a complicated world.
