These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:
Afghanistan: The surge is surging, contrary to General McChrystal this is the beginning of the end. One year max is all the time that’s left to sort of straighten things out; the odds do not favor our doing so. There remain more contractors than troops in Afghanistan, and there’s little evidence that all the money is doing much good. Gorilla remains confident that we’ll be heading out by the end of next year, with full withdrawal by 2013.
Pakistan: More important than the Obama speech was his decision to authorize more covert action and more drone strikes inside Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether Pakistan is serious about cleaning out the Taliban from places like Baluchistan, or finding al-Qaeda leaders in Waziristan. The greater fear is that Pakistan will use the American withdrawal and/or the fear of India as an excuse to maintain the status quo. Gorilla thinks we’ll eventually have to decide whether to go into Pakistan, with or without Pakistani approval, particularly when it becomes apparent that Afghanistan is a lost cause.
Unemployment: Good news about the overall rate doesn’t change the fact that continued claims are way too high and that economic growth at present is insufficient to make a real dent. The jobs summit was a fiasco, there’s still no sense of seriousness in Washington that unemployment may not come down significantly for many years. Gorilla predicts that the lowest level of unemployment in President Obama’s term will remain that of February 2009 (over 7%).
Health care reform: Heading to the finish line, but the effort remains very minor. The breast cancer debacle says that politicians aren’t willing to do anything about costs or insist on anything like efficiency. Gorilla believes that we’ll all be in Medicare by 2025 at the latest.
Climate change: A week full of announcements signifying nothing. Copenhagen is dead in the water and, as with so many issues, there’s no appetite for shared sacrifice of any kind. Gorilla believes we’ll have national health care before we seriously tackle climate change.
US Economy: Still growing anemically. The housing market bust continues. The CRE bust is on the horizon. The banks remain zombies as the next wave of foreclosures arrives. Ben Bernanke fails again and gets another term in office. The rich continue to enjoy the estate tax extension, while the politicians continue to party like it’s 1937. Gorilla thinks it will be at least 2 years, if not longer, before the economy is growing at a healthy rate (above 4%).
Blogging: Two of Gorilla’s favorite bloggers, Willem Buiter of the Financial Times and John Jansen of Across The Curve, announced that they’re retiring to pursue other opportunities. Gorilla will remain opportunistic while pursuing retirement.
Tags: Across The Curve, Afghanistan, climate change, health care reform, Maverecon, Pakistan, unemployment, US Economy