Archive for December, 2009

Blog On Hiatus

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Gorilla’s had a few personal issues this week, so the blog is on hiatus, will likely resume next week.

Gorilla does feel a bit vindicated by his predictions that 1) Copenhagen would go nowhere because it was more in everyone’s interests to do nothing than to do anything, 2) Health care reform would be a very minor league deal indeed, if it even passes, and 3) no one among our leaders cares to do a damn thing about 10% unemployment.

Not that these are triumphs, just reflections on how backward America has become.

Gorilla also thinks it’s even money at the moment that Obama will be the next Jimmy Carter, one and done.

“Be back soon!” says Gorilla.

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This Was A Very Great Man

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Gorilla’s thinking today about his good friend Dennis deLeon, who died yesterday, and that’s why the blog will be on hold this week.

Here’s the official NY Times obit.

Dennis had AIDS for more than 20 years.

He never let it get him down.

He was a great human rights activist, a far better human being, a man who gave everything he had to make this life count.

He was also brilliant, and funny, and didn’t suffer fools gladly, particularly in restaurants.

He was a big shot in New York City and he did his level best to make being a big shot count for those who are not big shots.

He’ll be missed terribly, most of all by his partner Bruce, a great and wonderful friend of Gorilla’s, and by the lives he touched, numbered in the millions.

Gorilla’s going to his funeral, because Dennis made Gorilla’s life immeasurably better.

Respect and admiration are in short supply these days, there’s too much attention to compromise and playing it safe, but Dennis deLeon was admirable, he never compromised, and he played the game to win for everyone who never would…

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Time Out

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Gorilla’s taking a few days away from the blog, he’ll be back soon!

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The Greeks Have A Word For It

Monday, December 14th, 2009

And that word would be: χρέος

Seems the Greeks are in debt up to their eyeballs, and must do something or face being bailed out by the EU or IMF:

EUdebts

Unlike American states, whose governors are all busy being Herbert Hoovers by stupidly balancing budgets and prolonging the recession, EU states can issue debt instruments, but only so long as investors have confidence they’ll be repaid.

When the investors start to grumble, the EU sends someone in from Brussels or Frankfurt to read the riot act; in the past week, Ireland and Greece have had to promise to get their houses in order.

Meanwhile, the US government, borrowing at basically zero with a budget deficit similar to Greece’s, is in the throes of a ridiculous “let’s cut the deficit at a time of 10% unemployment in the middle of the worst recession in 70 years” discussion.

Gorilla sums it up: “It’s all Greek to our leaders, whether to stay loyal to 1937 or send the last employed Trojan horse to the glue factory!”

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More Climate Changelings

Monday, December 14th, 2009

This time it’s a couple of Senators who think cap and trade will work.

Here’s what they suggest:

* 100% of the permits to bring fossil carbon into the U.S. economy will be auctioned from day one – there are no permit giveaways.
* 75% of the auction revenue is returned directly to the public as equal per person dividends.
* 25% of the auction revenue is devoted to investments in energy efficiency, clean energy, adaptation to climate change, and assistance for sectors hurt by the transition from the fossil-fueled economy.
* Zero offsets are allowed: polluters cannot avoid curbing use of fossil fuels by paying someone else to ostensibly clean up after them.

All of this is fine, but it is again based on the idea that moving from carbon fuels to something else is an entirely cost-free, sacrifice-free effort. It’s not.

Whether you do it via cap and trade, or a direct tax on carbon, you’ve got to get the price of carbon-based energy to be substantially higher than it is now. Otherwise, the alternative energies aren’t economically viable. And you’ve got to get consumers of energy, not just producers, to understand and accept that they must change their behavior for good.

Now, you can subsidize the added costs, even if they turn out to be minor relative to overall GDP, via cap and trade “dividends”, but can you convince Americans they’ll have to pay say triple the current price of gasoline at the pump? Drive a smaller car powered by electricity or hydrogen? Pay considerably more to heat and electrify their homes via coal, oil, or gas? Abandon the suburbs for smaller homes in central cities?

It could be done, and one day it probably will be done, but that day’s a long way off.

American politicians, who represent the people who elected them, no more and no less, are not going to vote for anything that raises costs today in the hope that one day, long after they’re out of power and/or dead, costs will come down.

Look at health care reform.

There are 50 million uninsured Americans, and 45,000 Americans/year dying because of lack of health insurance.

Yet a very modest health care reform bill that barely begins to address this tragedy cannot get passed.

America just doesn’t do national sacrifice any more.

A substantial group of Americans believe that those who need government help are not real Americans.

Two generations of Americans remain in denial about the fact that middle class incomes haven’t budged in real terms for nearly 40 years.

Older Americans, the only group enjoying universal health care, are the greatest opponents of health care reform.

Americans are fighting two wars, but it’s only a few hundred thousand families who are sacrificing anything to stay in the fight.

It’s a depressing reflection on how much we’ve lost touch with reality, how little we care to help others at home and abroad, and how quickly freedom has become a cudgel to maintain a very tiny number of Americans in wealth and power.

Gorilla suggests: “Hope and change are fine, but cash on the barrel still rules the roost in America!”

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Joe Says No

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Senator Joe Lieberman’s doing his level best to kill health care reform.

He’s not in favor of Medicare at 55 and he’s not in favor of the public option.

Unless Joe or some other Senator can be bribed, what is certainly a very marginal piece of legislation will go nowhere.

Every piece of major legislation needs 60 votes to pass, and the Democrats don’t have 60 votes, they have 59 and Lieberman.

The Republicans on the other hand have totally abrogated their responsibility to provide anything other than a no vote on every major piece of legislation. Having gotten the country into this mess, they’re perfectly happy to let it get worse.

So, it appears that Washington is pretty much useless when it comes to addressing the major problems facing the country.

This isn’t very surprising, because our leaders haven’t done much more than screw around for the past 35 years, during which time Americans median income went nowhere.

Gorilla, who thought health care reform in 2009 was dead last summer, is only slightly more positive now: “They’ll pass something that’s really health care reform in 2025!”

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Another Zombie Ponies Up

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Citibank this time, paying back some of the government’s money (the government of course is still holding the bag for trillions of bad loans, many made by Citibank).

Meanwhile, our President will be jawboning all the bankers to do something more about lending, particularly to small businesses.

The difficulties here are numerous, but here are three:

1) Citibank, Bank of America, and many other large banks are effectively insolvent. They’ve been hoarding money and issuing new stock like crazy. Mostly, the TARP payback is to escape restrictions on pay, but it’s also masking the huge losses to come on commercial real estate.

2) In a recession, demand declines. Therefore, business lending gets riskier and riskier. In this greatest recession since the Great Depression, the banks simply aren’t willing to throw good money after bad, except for “sure things” like the dollar carry trade. Bubbles like that will burst again, and we’ll be right back where we started.

3) With no demand, businesses don’t hire, regardless of whether they have access to credit or not. The Administration continues to do next to nothing about 10% unemployment, and is still living in a fantasy world where hit and hope substitutes for real action. Democrats will pay for this lack of seriousness next November.

Gorilla thinks: “When geniuses like Larry Summers say spring will bring new jobs, ask him which year he has in mind!”

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Where Are The Pies?

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Silvio Berlusconi was attacked and had his nose broken over the weekend.

While violence cannot be condoned, one wonders why a cream pie couldn’t be the weapon of choice for attacking ridiculous “leaders”, much as a Belgian anarchist group successfully hit Bill Gates a few years ago.

It’s quite easy to make a list: Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Mitch McConnell, the Pope and every other religious leader, and on and on.

Gorilla says: “Lead with the cream, it’s only a dream!”

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TGIF And Predictions

Friday, December 11th, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

Health care reform: Farewell, public option, hello, Medicare buy-in! All very minor league stuff. Single payer is the way to go, and Gorilla believes that’s where we’ll be by 2025.

Nobel Peace Prize: An interesting speech from President Obama on the rationale for “just” war. War apparently is peace by other means. The difficulty with all this nuanced rhetoric is that it doesn’t match up with actual policy. The Administration is still defending the right of government officials to spy on Americans and to commit crimes with impunity. The Administration is all for nuclear non-proliferation, but conventional proliferation remains big business. Gorilla thinks that all this pragmatism is fine, but wishes there would be an occasional foray into non-opinion poll-based foreign policy.

Human Rights Day: A reminder of how little can be done to address major problems. Nobody’s going to war, justly or unjustly, for Darfur, the Congo, Guinea, or Zimbabwe. The plight of women and children in most countries remains appalling. Gorilla suggests that progress can be made, at the grassroots and at the margins, if there’s a willingness to see it through with political and economic capital.

Climate change: Copenhagen peters away like a deflated gas bag. There’s no political support anywhere in the developed world for doing anything that requires big money, big sacrifice, or big risks. We’re waiting for the Chinese and Indians to do something, they’re waiting for us, and it’s convenient for everyone that nothing much gets done. Gorilla predicts that serious climate change policy will come only when climate change is a serious threat, roughly 20 years from now.

US Economy: The figures remain dire. We need to be adding 300,000 jobs/month just to stay even with population and trendline growth; last month we lost another 11,000. Retail sales are barely above inflation. The mortgage modification program has been a total failure. The hoarding by banks goes on, while credit tightens further. There’s no real leadership coming from Washington as everyone gears up for the 2010 elections. Gorilla thinks the Democrats will get a severe and deserved kicking at the polls next November.

Iraq: The bombers are back, or rather they never went away. Despite all the surging, 7 Iraqis die violently every day. Gorilla thinks the civil war will resume in 2012.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: The denial dance goes on. President Karzai still hasn’t named a cabinet. Pakistan still hasn’t done anything about Baluchistan. America still hasn’t captured any top al-Qaeda leaders. Gorilla has moved his withdrawal timetable from late 2010 to mid 2011, and still believes we’ll be mostly out by 2015.

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Slamdown For Cramdown

Friday, December 11th, 2009

The House of Representatives again decided not to pass cramdown, that is the practice of allowing bankruptcy court judges to alter the terms of mortgage loans, in a clear victory for the taxpayer funded banking industry.

When this sort of thing keeps happening, you know that the Congress remains a captive of the financial services industry.

Most of the “regulatory reform” that will pass does absolutely nothing to limit the size and power of Wall Street.

A few caps on pay may be popular, and a fig leaf of transparency may make derivatives trading seem benign, but too big to fail remains the guiding principle behind Washington’s approach.

It’s an abrogation of both fiduciary duty and moral hazard that all but guarantees the next big bubble disaster.

Gorilla says: “Volcker was right, the only thing innovative in the banking industry for 30 years was the ATM, and now there’s one in every Congressional office!”

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