The test of Euroland begins in earnest…
The bond market for Greece, Portugal, and Spain, and possibly Ireland and Italy, is nearing collapse.
There’s not much belief in:
*The ability of the Greeks to undertake serious fiscal and monetary reform.
*The ability of the Portuguese to refinance an external debt that’s larger than Greece’s.
*The willingness of Germany and other Euroland countries to finance a large scale rescue package on the order of $200-250/billion over the next 3 years.
*The capacity of the European Central Bank to do anything other than fight non-existent inflation.
Will there be haircuts? Inevitably, on the order of 20-30%, which may then risk the solvency of several European banks.
Will Euroland survive? Not likely in its present form, the question is who will leave and who will be pitched out.
What about America? Time to ask the wizards of Wall Street just how much they stand to lose in this debacle.
Gorilla says: “The free drinks are gone, you’ll have to pay up for and with more than peanuts!”