Gorilla's Blog

This is what mattered in the world this week:

*President Obama gave a good speech about health care. Nothing much will change in terms of reform, because there aren’t enough votes for the public option and the Congress doesn’t really want to take on the medical industrial complex. Gorilla says a bill will be done by November, but window dressing and no competition will be the main features of what has been a gloriously wasted opportunity.

*Hamid Karzai has won the Afghan election, possibly on the back of massive fraud. This doesn’t matter since he’s the candidate the West wants to be President of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Democratic Congressional voices are starting to question the need for more American troops. Gorilla believes we’ll be on our way out within a year.

*Iran continues to be an unresolved problem, having first refused to negotiate on the nuclear issue, then proposing to tie it to an overall Middle East settlement. It seems likely that the Russians were smuggling arms to Iran via the mystery ship, and it is clear there is no Russian support for further sanctions against Iran. Gorilla thinks we’ll be negotiating bilaterally with Iran and North Korea within 6-12 months.

*While happy talk continues in Movingforwardville about the end of the recession, there is very little evidence that things are getting better with the US economy. Unemployment continues to rise, median incomes are falling, many banks remain insolvent, the dollar is tanking again (although this is actually a good thing in terms of US exports), and Wall Street has started on the next round of bubble dancing. Gorilla believes there are more bad shoes to drop in the coming months, particularly from the financial service and housing industries, while the consumer will remain on the sidelines for another year.

*French President Sarkozy’s decision to levy a carbon tax marks the first semi-serious Western effort to deal with climate change. Alas, there’s no corresponding initiative being undertaken by larger polluting nations, either because they’re waiting for each other to make the first move or they lack the political support domestically to do anything serious. Gorilla foresees yet another G-20 summit of loftily vague promises and no real progress.

*8th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The greatest intelligence failure in American history continues. Gorilla suggests that not catching Osama bin Laden and his cohorts is more or less of a piece with not holding American governmental officials accountable for torture and the greatest economic disaster since the Depression. As we now know, Goingbackwardville doesn’t do accountability at all, but it does amorality very well.