For the fifth year in a row, the number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan has risen.

Without question, Assad, like his father, is a murderous tyrant. Karzai, on the other hand, is simply a corrupt buffoon.

Gorilla says, “Nobody’s going to war over Syria, and nobody should have gone to war over Afghanistan!”

An absolute disaster: a couple of trillion dollars, thousands dead, and nothing whatever to show for it.

Gorilla says: “Wake me when it’s actually over, meanwhile this foolish nightmare continues!”

Euroland Meltdown: They may be able to muddle through for another year, but the fundamental imbalances between Germany and the rest of Euroland remain unaddressed, while borrowing costs for all continue to rise. Greece will exit the Euro, with the Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish not far behind. All bets are on if both Sarkozy and Merkel lose their elections.

Arab Springing: The real question is whether or not the nascent Arab Spring movements will come to countries where the West has real (read: oil) interests: Bahrain and the other Gulf States plus Saudi Arabia. So far, these nondemocratic countries have been able to buy off their populations, but the combination of aging leadership and vast youth unemployment could well become toxic.

Environmental Change: A major catalyst on the downside for the global economy. It’s tempting to put global warming in the same non-issue category as unemployment, since very little of substance is being done by anyone to address the problem. On the other hand, more violent weather is, like protofascist movements in Euroland, not something that can be ignored without cost.

The Winding Down Of Pointless Wars: It’s clear that there’ll be both negotiations and a swift exit from Afghanistan, on or before 2014. It’s also clear that the US military isn’t ready to overthrow any more tiresome regimes anytime soon. The international community’s policy is evolving from “protecting civilians” to “stand by and deal with whoever’s left”; civil wars will continue but the appetite for involvement in them will decrease.

Wild Cards: The failing states of Pakistan and Mexico. What happens there will intrude, possibly in a more direct and violent way, on the West’s hit, hope, and ignore strategy.

Gorilla says: “Two words that may sum up 2012: Northwest Passage!”

Why we need to spend another 3 years on this debacle is beyond understanding.

There will certainly be a civil war once we depart.

We can try for a negotiated settlement in advance, but it appears that everyone in the country and in the region is waiting for us to leave before getting serious (about either war or peace).

There needs to be a complete overhaul of the Pentagon, reducing the budget substantially and addressing genuine national security threats (of which there are very few).

DOD is wasting trillions of dollars on an outdated strategy (whose air forces and navies are we going to fight? whose army hasn’t a clue about counterinsurgency? whose nukes must we spend billions defending against?), while being unable to defeat a lightly armed, fifth-rate group of fanatics who pose no threat whatever to the United States.

Gorilla says: “Never leave anything to the generals, they’ll just screw it up!”

And of course this is helping to fund the insurgency we just cannot seem to beat, despite 10 years of trying.

It’s reminiscent of the other failures of wars on drugs (how’s Mexico doing?) and terror (Iraq’s now helping to keep the Syrian butcher in power, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Somalia have descended into civil war).

We could be encouraging Afghan opium production to provide for painkilling drugs in the West, since there’s very little else the farmers can grow that makes so much money. But that’s way too sensible for our idiot generals and diplomats.

Gorilla says: “You can’t win when you’re funding both sides of the same stupidity!”

At the beginning a failed war of revenge, we’re fighting now for absolutely nothing.

Thousands have died and billions have been spent for nothing.

And there is still no exit strategy, no serious government in place, and no accountability whatsoever.

Gorilla says: “Just like Vietnam, just like Iraq, just like Korea!”

Today, a peace negotiator is killed, presumably by one of the sides with which he was negotiating.

We need to let the Afghans settle this among themselves, and that won’t happen until we stop occupying what is a dysfunctional, dirt poor, and strategically unimportant country.

Gorilla says: “Long-term occupations are only good for defense contractors!”

Gorilla says: “Or we could hire 300,000 Americans and pay them each a salary of $30K for a year!”

“If this is the best they can do, I find both their lack of ability and capacity and the ability of Afghan forces to respond to it actually encouraging in this whole transition process”.

Let’s see: a 20 hour gun and grenade battle in the center of Kabul is really a sign of success, since Afghans eventually were able to win it!

Put aside the total lack of security in the capital, let alone the countryside, and repeat after me: we are winning the future!!!

Gorilla says: “There’s nothing like blindness to make you appreciate a lack of foresight!”

When you cannot even protect an embassy in a capital city against grenades and guns, you’ve failed, completely and utterly.

It’s time to move up the timetable and get out of Afghanistan by the end of 2012.

Gorilla says: “The generals have spent a decade fighting for absolutely nothing!”