Having been prevented from running, Aung San Suu Kyi, who won Burma’s only free election in 1989, says it’s better for her party not to register this time around.
And so the latest farce begins, with democracy a far-flung dream and no country willing to do very much about it.
That’s Burma policy for 20 years, dialogue or not.
Gorilla thinks: “She’s playing the long game, but she may not last much longer!”
Burma’s top general says he hopes the Burmese people will make “correct choices” when it comes to elections scheduled for later this year.
A warning? Most probably, since the last free election held in Burma resulted in a military coup and 21 years of dictatorship.
What can be done? Nothing much at all, until the Burmese people, like the Iranian people, decide that getting rid of their bums may require the deaths of thousands.
As in Iran, there’s no real outlet for opposition and no certainty about who the population really supports. There’s hope that the veil will be lifted peacefully, but not much confidence in what’s an increasingly desperate situation.
Carrots and sticks have both been tried on Burma, but the reality is that no one’s going to war for the place and the Burmese generals know it.
Gorilla thinks: “Suu Kyi is Burma, such is life!”
This was what mattered this week:
*The great Les Paul died. No one in the last 70 years had a more profound impact on American popular music, as both a performer and innovator. Gorilla will miss him, here’s a little sample of his genius, brought to you by Listerine:
*The health care debate continues going nowhere. We may not be the stupidest nation on earth, but we are giving it the old college try. Gorilla thinks we will get a very minor bill out sometime in September or October.
*The Administration is beginning to talk turkey with Burma and North Korea. Gorilla thinks Iran will not be far behind.
*The foreign policy pragmatism has not yet extended to Afghanistan, but events on the ground, namely the lack of sufficient troops to stabilize the country, let alone go after al-Qaeda, are beginning to dictate the need for an exit strategy. Gorilla still believes we’ll begin to pull out by the end of 2010.
*The economy is nearing the bottom, but there’s very little evidence that growth will return anytime soon. Fundamental problems with bank insolvency and the real estate bust have not been addressed. Gorilla suggests that Goingbackwardville will remain ascendant over Movingforwardville for at least another year.
Senator Jim Webb’s in Burma, trying to talk with the junta.
Since no one’s going to war over Burma, except rhetorically, it will be interesting to see what, if anything, Webb achieves.
It won’t be Aung San Suu Kyi’s release, and alas it won’t be the drowning of the Mormon clown who swam to her further destruction, but it may be a pause that refreshes.
Gorilla says: “When there’s nothing left to sanction, talk is the cheapest option!”
Aung San Suu Kyi unsurprisingly has been convicted again in Burma and sentenced to another 3 years of house arrest. She’s spent 14 of the last 20 years in the same state.
And the tut, tuttings have already begun, with the Europeans demanding tougher sanctions against Burma.
Gorilla says: “The generals in their labyrinth know there’s nothing behind this latest show of concern and empty threats. The Burma Road was shut down long ago”.
It matters little whether Aung San Suu Kyi manages to avoid a show trial and imprisonment, or whether she returns to house arrest and effective internal exile. She’s already done a 20 year sentence.
A democratically elected leader deposed by the military is pitched out of Honduras for trying to hang on undemocratically, and immediately there is an OAS demand for restoration, backed by the threat of sanctions and explusion.
But in Rangoon a democratically elected leader was deposed by the military in 1989, and she has yet to be restored to power. Sanctions have been attempted and ignored, explusion from ASEAN has gone nowhere, and the tut-tutting goes on.
Nowhere is the international community more toothless than it is in Burma. No one’s going to war over the place. The refugees continue to stream into Thailand. The monks have resumed silent prayer. Ban Ki Moon jets in to enable his own and Burmese masters to pretend they are concerned.
Gorilla knows that a deranged Mormon out for a swim in Rangoon remains more certain of experiencing freedom than the Burmese people. Tragedy and farce always mingle at the water’s edge.
