Posts Tagged ‘climate change’

America’s Climate Change Joke

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Climate change is of course very real, but in the United States our leaders are not remotely serious about it.

The latest comes from West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller, friend to the end of coal (and wealthy descendant of a fossil fuel robber baron).

He, and many other Congresspersons of both parties, want a moratorium on EPA regulation of greenhouse gases.

It’s being framed as a Congress v. Executive Branch fight over prerogatives, but, like health care and financial services “reform”, it’s actually just another attempt to avoid serious policymaking that might gore a few oxen, especially those oxen who thought their Congress was already bought and paid for.

Gorilla thinks: “Another lump of coal for the EPA’s stocking!”

Share

Osama bin Green

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Who knew that al-Qaeda’s reclusive leader is worried about climate change?

Well, he is and he’s angry!

Terrorist best practice for a greener world?

1) Boycott the US dollar. Everyone’s already doing that, except for the Chinese.

2) Reaffirm Kyoto. Everyone’s already given up on that one, vague promises and unpunishable targets are the lingua franca now.

Gorilla says: “When terrorists insist on terra firma, you know bipartisanship remains a pipe dream!”

Share

I’m Warning You…

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Sure, 26 years and billions of dollars later, the Chesapeake Bay dead zones remain.

They’re as good an example as any of why tackling climate change will be so difficult.

So, a government that has failed now says it will be getting tough with the states who have also failed.

The problem in a nutshell is that there are too many polluters around the watershed. These include farmers, real estate developers, and the fishing industry.

The obvious solution, to put an end to commercial and residential development permanently while significantly increasing the cost of pollution for those projects already completed, is of course not a politically viable solution.

Politicians don’t do pain and Americans don’t do shared sacrifice any more.

Gorilla thinks: “And so the merry dance of just cause and empty threat goes on!”

Share

Gassing Up Post-Gasbags

Monday, December 21st, 2009

So far, Mr. Market doesn’t think much of the Copenhagen (agreement? piece of paper? movingforwardville process?)…

Carbon prices fell big time this morning on the Euro cap and trade exchanges.

Gorilla says: “Goingbackwardville is selling at a discount!”

Share

More Climate Changelings

Monday, December 14th, 2009

This time it’s a couple of Senators who think cap and trade will work.

Here’s what they suggest:

* 100% of the permits to bring fossil carbon into the U.S. economy will be auctioned from day one – there are no permit giveaways.
* 75% of the auction revenue is returned directly to the public as equal per person dividends.
* 25% of the auction revenue is devoted to investments in energy efficiency, clean energy, adaptation to climate change, and assistance for sectors hurt by the transition from the fossil-fueled economy.
* Zero offsets are allowed: polluters cannot avoid curbing use of fossil fuels by paying someone else to ostensibly clean up after them.

All of this is fine, but it is again based on the idea that moving from carbon fuels to something else is an entirely cost-free, sacrifice-free effort. It’s not.

Whether you do it via cap and trade, or a direct tax on carbon, you’ve got to get the price of carbon-based energy to be substantially higher than it is now. Otherwise, the alternative energies aren’t economically viable. And you’ve got to get consumers of energy, not just producers, to understand and accept that they must change their behavior for good.

Now, you can subsidize the added costs, even if they turn out to be minor relative to overall GDP, via cap and trade “dividends”, but can you convince Americans they’ll have to pay say triple the current price of gasoline at the pump? Drive a smaller car powered by electricity or hydrogen? Pay considerably more to heat and electrify their homes via coal, oil, or gas? Abandon the suburbs for smaller homes in central cities?

It could be done, and one day it probably will be done, but that day’s a long way off.

American politicians, who represent the people who elected them, no more and no less, are not going to vote for anything that raises costs today in the hope that one day, long after they’re out of power and/or dead, costs will come down.

Look at health care reform.

There are 50 million uninsured Americans, and 45,000 Americans/year dying because of lack of health insurance.

Yet a very modest health care reform bill that barely begins to address this tragedy cannot get passed.

America just doesn’t do national sacrifice any more.

A substantial group of Americans believe that those who need government help are not real Americans.

Two generations of Americans remain in denial about the fact that middle class incomes haven’t budged in real terms for nearly 40 years.

Older Americans, the only group enjoying universal health care, are the greatest opponents of health care reform.

Americans are fighting two wars, but it’s only a few hundred thousand families who are sacrificing anything to stay in the fight.

It’s a depressing reflection on how much we’ve lost touch with reality, how little we care to help others at home and abroad, and how quickly freedom has become a cudgel to maintain a very tiny number of Americans in wealth and power.

Gorilla suggests: “Hope and change are fine, but cash on the barrel still rules the roost in America!”

Share

TGIF And Predictions

Friday, December 11th, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

Health care reform: Farewell, public option, hello, Medicare buy-in! All very minor league stuff. Single payer is the way to go, and Gorilla believes that’s where we’ll be by 2025.

Nobel Peace Prize: An interesting speech from President Obama on the rationale for “just” war. War apparently is peace by other means. The difficulty with all this nuanced rhetoric is that it doesn’t match up with actual policy. The Administration is still defending the right of government officials to spy on Americans and to commit crimes with impunity. The Administration is all for nuclear non-proliferation, but conventional proliferation remains big business. Gorilla thinks that all this pragmatism is fine, but wishes there would be an occasional foray into non-opinion poll-based foreign policy.

Human Rights Day: A reminder of how little can be done to address major problems. Nobody’s going to war, justly or unjustly, for Darfur, the Congo, Guinea, or Zimbabwe. The plight of women and children in most countries remains appalling. Gorilla suggests that progress can be made, at the grassroots and at the margins, if there’s a willingness to see it through with political and economic capital.

Climate change: Copenhagen peters away like a deflated gas bag. There’s no political support anywhere in the developed world for doing anything that requires big money, big sacrifice, or big risks. We’re waiting for the Chinese and Indians to do something, they’re waiting for us, and it’s convenient for everyone that nothing much gets done. Gorilla predicts that serious climate change policy will come only when climate change is a serious threat, roughly 20 years from now.

US Economy: The figures remain dire. We need to be adding 300,000 jobs/month just to stay even with population and trendline growth; last month we lost another 11,000. Retail sales are barely above inflation. The mortgage modification program has been a total failure. The hoarding by banks goes on, while credit tightens further. There’s no real leadership coming from Washington as everyone gears up for the 2010 elections. Gorilla thinks the Democrats will get a severe and deserved kicking at the polls next November.

Iraq: The bombers are back, or rather they never went away. Despite all the surging, 7 Iraqis die violently every day. Gorilla thinks the civil war will resume in 2012.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: The denial dance goes on. President Karzai still hasn’t named a cabinet. Pakistan still hasn’t done anything about Baluchistan. America still hasn’t captured any top al-Qaeda leaders. Gorilla has moved his withdrawal timetable from late 2010 to mid 2011, and still believes we’ll be mostly out by 2015.

Share

Quote Of The Day

Friday, December 11th, 2009

This one from Senator John Kerry on the occasion of his announcement with Senators Lieberman and Graham of a bipartisan climate change plan:

“The reason there’s not specifics [being released] today is very specifically because of the process that we are honoring”.

That would be the process whereby no one in the world’s greatest polluting country is asked to sacrifice anything, everyone is expected to benefit enormously, and Professor Marvel keeps closing the curtain down on those who see little need to research “clean coal”.

Gorilla says: “Sausagemaking also contributes to global warming, and that’s the cap and trade we’ll get!”

Share

The Circle Of Non-Commitment

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

What’s the Circle Of Commitment?

A group of rich countries in Copenhagen, including the US, UK, and Denmark, who are writing a final draft document a) not involving poor countries but requiring them to limit their pollution to half that of rich countries by 2050, b) upending the Kyoto Protocol and pretty much ending the UN’s primary role in climate change negotiations, and c) passing the buck for financing poor country climate change to the World Bank.

Needless to say, the poor countries aren’t too happy about this. They’re essentially being presented with a fait accompli, while the rich countries, most of whom are not actually serious about climate change, get to continue polluting away.

As the UN’s chief environmental watchdog puts it:

“Anybody who argues we cannot do Copenhagen is wrong. We can do it. The question is whether we want to do it, whether we have the commitment to do it and that has to do with willingness to pay the difference the developing countries will incur as they become part of carbon cuts much earlier than they are obliged to from their historical emissions. It is very complicated but also very simple.”

Gorilla thinks: “Au contraire, a commitment to doing nothing is so simple, it’s complicated!”

Share

Perfect, Good, Or Nothing?

Monday, December 7th, 2009

A very good op-ed discussion today about climate change in the NY Times, with Paul Krugman and James Hansen.

In essence, Krugman argues that cap and trade has worked before and should therefore work again with respect to carbon emissions. Hansen argues that cap and trade doesn’t do enough, and that a carbon tax is the only way to make fossil fuels obsolete over time.

There’s a bit of irony both ways: Krugman, an economist, is saying that politics make a carbon tax impossible and that cap and trade can achieve the goal of reducing emissions. Hanson, a climate scientist, argues that unless fossil fuels are made more expensive there won’t be enough incentives to make alternatives economically viable.

And they’re both right. It does come down to the perfect (taxation) being the enemy of the good (cap and trade), provided you assume (as Krugman does) that the Congress will do something soon to set up a cap and trade system.

Gorilla isn’t so sure: “I doubt the Senate will go along with anything that upsets Big Coal and Big Oil! Doing nothing about climate change is the default option until things get really bad: see health care reform!”

Share

TGIF And Predictions

Friday, December 4th, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

Afghanistan: The surge is surging, contrary to General McChrystal this is the beginning of the end. One year max is all the time that’s left to sort of straighten things out; the odds do not favor our doing so. There remain more contractors than troops in Afghanistan, and there’s little evidence that all the money is doing much good. Gorilla remains confident that we’ll be heading out by the end of next year, with full withdrawal by 2013.

Pakistan: More important than the Obama speech was his decision to authorize more covert action and more drone strikes inside Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether Pakistan is serious about cleaning out the Taliban from places like Baluchistan, or finding al-Qaeda leaders in Waziristan. The greater fear is that Pakistan will use the American withdrawal and/or the fear of India as an excuse to maintain the status quo. Gorilla thinks we’ll eventually have to decide whether to go into Pakistan, with or without Pakistani approval, particularly when it becomes apparent that Afghanistan is a lost cause.

Unemployment: Good news about the overall rate doesn’t change the fact that continued claims are way too high and that economic growth at present is insufficient to make a real dent. The jobs summit was a fiasco, there’s still no sense of seriousness in Washington that unemployment may not come down significantly for many years. Gorilla predicts that the lowest level of unemployment in President Obama’s term will remain that of February 2009 (over 7%).

Health care reform: Heading to the finish line, but the effort remains very minor. The breast cancer debacle says that politicians aren’t willing to do anything about costs or insist on anything like efficiency. Gorilla believes that we’ll all be in Medicare by 2025 at the latest.

Climate change
: A week full of announcements signifying nothing. Copenhagen is dead in the water and, as with so many issues, there’s no appetite for shared sacrifice of any kind. Gorilla believes we’ll have national health care before we seriously tackle climate change.

US Economy: Still growing anemically. The housing market bust continues. The CRE bust is on the horizon. The banks remain zombies as the next wave of foreclosures arrives. Ben Bernanke fails again and gets another term in office. The rich continue to enjoy the estate tax extension, while the politicians continue to party like it’s 1937. Gorilla thinks it will be at least 2 years, if not longer, before the economy is growing at a healthy rate (above 4%).

Blogging: Two of Gorilla’s favorite bloggers, Willem Buiter of the Financial Times and John Jansen of Across The Curve, announced that they’re retiring to pursue other opportunities. Gorilla will remain opportunistic while pursuing retirement.

Share