Posts Tagged ‘Copenhagen’

The Copenhagen Syndrome

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

Today’s Middle East non-starter: the elimination of nuclear weapons from the region!

Given that only Israel has nuclear weapons at present, and has shown zero interest in either conventional peace talks or giving up WMD, it’s difficult to understand what anyone expects to accomplish at yet another non-proliferation conference.

In many way, the Copenhagen Syndrome of these surreal efforts comes down to this:

1) As in Copenhagen with climate change, the US isn’t really serious about non-proliferation. If we were, then we’d be compelling India, Pakistan, and Israel to join the IAEA inspections regime, and allowing inspectors to have a look at our own arsenal.

2) The US isn’t about to put any pressure on Israel in an election year, or frankly in any year. There’s zero domestic political gain in taking the Israelis on, whether in “talks about talks” or in “talks about talks about treaties”.

3) Deterrence has a very fungible definition. Applied to “great powers”, it means having enough destructive power to convince one’s enemies not to attack. Applied to the Middle East, it means keeping one friendly power nuclear and hoping no one else anywhere in the region either notices or responds.

Gorilla says: “Hard to be hostile to your captors when you’re the one who arranged the kidnapping!”

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Sticking A Danish Fork In

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

Copenhagen? It’s done for this year, says the Danish environment minister!

There was never any chance of a global agreement on climate change, and even less so in a US election year.

US politicians simply aren’t serious about sacrifice of any kind, so there’s little prospect of progress except at the margins.

Gorilla says: “A hamfisted waste of time!”

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Gassing Up Post-Gasbags

Monday, December 21st, 2009

So far, Mr. Market doesn’t think much of the Copenhagen (agreement? piece of paper? movingforwardville process?)…

Carbon prices fell big time this morning on the Euro cap and trade exchanges.

Gorilla says: “Goingbackwardville is selling at a discount!”

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Blog On Hiatus

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Gorilla’s had a few personal issues this week, so the blog is on hiatus, will likely resume next week.

Gorilla does feel a bit vindicated by his predictions that 1) Copenhagen would go nowhere because it was more in everyone’s interests to do nothing than to do anything, 2) Health care reform would be a very minor league deal indeed, if it even passes, and 3) no one among our leaders cares to do a damn thing about 10% unemployment.

Not that these are triumphs, just reflections on how backward America has become.

Gorilla also thinks it’s even money at the moment that Obama will be the next Jimmy Carter, one and done.

“Be back soon!” says Gorilla.

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TGIF And Predictions

Friday, December 11th, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

Health care reform: Farewell, public option, hello, Medicare buy-in! All very minor league stuff. Single payer is the way to go, and Gorilla believes that’s where we’ll be by 2025.

Nobel Peace Prize: An interesting speech from President Obama on the rationale for “just” war. War apparently is peace by other means. The difficulty with all this nuanced rhetoric is that it doesn’t match up with actual policy. The Administration is still defending the right of government officials to spy on Americans and to commit crimes with impunity. The Administration is all for nuclear non-proliferation, but conventional proliferation remains big business. Gorilla thinks that all this pragmatism is fine, but wishes there would be an occasional foray into non-opinion poll-based foreign policy.

Human Rights Day: A reminder of how little can be done to address major problems. Nobody’s going to war, justly or unjustly, for Darfur, the Congo, Guinea, or Zimbabwe. The plight of women and children in most countries remains appalling. Gorilla suggests that progress can be made, at the grassroots and at the margins, if there’s a willingness to see it through with political and economic capital.

Climate change: Copenhagen peters away like a deflated gas bag. There’s no political support anywhere in the developed world for doing anything that requires big money, big sacrifice, or big risks. We’re waiting for the Chinese and Indians to do something, they’re waiting for us, and it’s convenient for everyone that nothing much gets done. Gorilla predicts that serious climate change policy will come only when climate change is a serious threat, roughly 20 years from now.

US Economy: The figures remain dire. We need to be adding 300,000 jobs/month just to stay even with population and trendline growth; last month we lost another 11,000. Retail sales are barely above inflation. The mortgage modification program has been a total failure. The hoarding by banks goes on, while credit tightens further. There’s no real leadership coming from Washington as everyone gears up for the 2010 elections. Gorilla thinks the Democrats will get a severe and deserved kicking at the polls next November.

Iraq: The bombers are back, or rather they never went away. Despite all the surging, 7 Iraqis die violently every day. Gorilla thinks the civil war will resume in 2012.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: The denial dance goes on. President Karzai still hasn’t named a cabinet. Pakistan still hasn’t done anything about Baluchistan. America still hasn’t captured any top al-Qaeda leaders. Gorilla has moved his withdrawal timetable from late 2010 to mid 2011, and still believes we’ll be mostly out by 2015.

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Grandpa Gets It

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

The grandfather of global warming says the Copenhagen summit on climate change is a farce!

Climate scientist James Hansen, who first wrote about global warming in the 1980s, says: “The fundamental problem is that fossil fuels are the cheapest form of energy. As long as they are, they are going to be used,” he said. “It’s remarkable. They refuse to recognise and address the fundamental problem and the obvious solution.”

The solution? “We are going to have to move beyond fossil fuels at some point. Why continue to stretch it out longer?” he said. “The only way we can do that is by putting a price on carbon emissions. The business community and the public need to understand that there will be a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions.”

Gorilla says: “Listen to grandpa, he’s been there and done it!”

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Rudd Nipped In Bud

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

Climate change legislation has gone down to defeat in the Australian Senate.

The carbon trading scheme was rejected after the opposition Liberal party replaced its leader for supporting the legislation.

Australian PM Kevin Rudd’s government will have another go at passing the legislation next year. In the meantime, Rudd will be one of the negotiating point men attempting to arrive at another meaningless international agreement in Copenhagen.

It’s fairly clear that there simply isn’t the political will in most developed nations to deal with a problem that, while troubling, isn’t on the horizon for several more years. Politicians don’t do long-term and polluters don’t do shared sacrifice unless they can make a buck on it.

Gorilla thinks: “How green was my valley!”

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The 17% Solution

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Our President will go to Copenhagen, bringing with him a promise to reduce carbon emissions “in the range of 17%” below 2005 levels by 2020.

How this is to be accomplished when there is not filibuster proof support in the US Senate for climate change legislation is something our President doesn’t mention.

To be seen to be promising something that can’t possibly be achieved on your watch is what makes climate change negotiations so surpassingly ridiculous.

What’s the difference between Obama’s approach and the infamous “aspirational goals” his predecessor suggested?

One supposes it is in the degree of disingenuousness: Bush was never serious about climate change, but Obama said he was and so far his people think wishing will make it so.

Gorilla thinks: “A prune Danish may be good for regularity in a romance, but it’s a real turnoff when you’re carbon dating in West Virginia!”

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Agreed: Let’s Do Nothing!

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Copenhagen is approaching, and the good news is that many heads of state are attending!!!

The real news of course is that there’s no agreement on anything.

Countless hours will be spent between now and Danish summiteering in negotiating as best they can yet another non-binding agreement to do nothing!

Australian PM Kevin Rudd, a “key negotiator” sums it up:

“I believe there is a strong and high degree of political resolve from many of the leaders around the world to land a Copenhagen agreement,” he told the BBC.

But he said reaching what he called an “operational framework agreement” was “not inevitable” and that the negotiations will be “very tough”.

Gorilla says: “Yep, the saga of green is mostly blue!”

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Obfuscate Obdurate Copenhagen

Friday, November 13th, 2009

Yet another interim pact of meaningless words is all that will come from the Copenhagen climate change conference next month.

Even this uncertain outcome depends on the US deciding that a bit more bullshit is preferable to anything resembling leadership this holiday season.

The fact is that there’s no support in the US Congress for a serious approach to global warming. America doesn’t do shared sacrifice any more.

Carbon tax? You must be joking! Cap and trade? Only if it’s an absolutely fraudulent bit of Swiss cheese. Voluntary reductions? Give us a call in 2030!

Gorilla is green with envy: “It’s not every day that you can have no progress and see it too!”

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