Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

La Mediocrite Continue

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

France has given the world much to be ashamed of this year, from Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s amorality to a pointless war in Libya, and now the appointment of yet another IMF Director whose economic record is, to put it kindly, nothing to brag about.

The Eurozone and IMF have been playing extend and pretend, without any success, when it comes to dealing with a serious sovereign debt crisis. An insistence on austerity has produced precisely the opposite of what the ECB and IMF thought it would: grinding deflation, elevated unemployment, negative GDP growth, and contagion. The confidence fairies have yet to arrive.

All of this failure has been in the service of German, French, and Dutch bankers, who foolishly lent Greece, Ireland, and the other peripheral Eurozoners more money than they could possible repay. Defaults are now inevitable, to be accompanied by substantial haircuts for bondholders and the very real possibility that the Eurozone will be broken up.

For this, you can say Merci to Merkel, Sarkozy, and mediocre minions like Lagarde.

Gorilla says: “Failure apparently remains the only criterion for a successful politician!!!”

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The IMF Weighs In

Thursday, May 12th, 2011

So far, so good, so far, so bad: the view of Euroland

The sovereign debt problem remains, and will not improve so long as the Germans insist on crippling austerity, fighting nonexistent inflation, and do nothing serious to address the solvency of their own banks.

Gorilla says: “The IMF chooses to see optimism on the Eurozone prairie, but may need to distribute another wagonload of cash!”

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Crank Up The Cash Machine

Monday, December 6th, 2010

Time for Euroland to spend more, sayeth the IMF!

It’s hard to judge which side of the Atlantic is behaving more stupidly: the northern Europeans who insist on austerity and an unhealthy dependence on confidence fairies, or the US, whose leaders believe 25 million unemployed deserve less attention than the needs of the richest 3 million.

Gorilla says: “Sub summa cum laude!”

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Ponying Up

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

The IMF’s tripled the size of the Greek rescue package, a necessary first step on the road to recognizing reality…

Of course, it’s still not enough money, as Portugal will require at least $100 billion, and Spain is waiting in the wings if the markets remain unconvinced.

Further contagion of this sort might end up costing $1 trillion. The lack of coherent political leadership in Euroland, most especially from the Germans, is making the problem worse.

Another unanswered question is who’ll be responsible for replenishing IMF coffers if the bill escalates further.

Answer: the US taxpayer will bear a very large burden. That’s not getting any discussion on this side of the pond, but it’s inevitable.

Gorilla says: “The Germans won’t go and the Greeks can’t leave!”

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Greecing The Wheels

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

Mr. Market sees the Greek economic problem for what it is: a disaster that could spread quickly to other equally mismanaged countries, such as Spain, Portugal, and Italy.

Greek bond yields are rising fast, because Euroland hasn’t been credible in putting together a rescue package for Greece.

Such a package requires far more austerity than what the Greeks have offered so far, combined with debt guarantees for what looks like 100-150 billion euros that will need refinancing in the next 3 years.

Everyone’s waiting for the IMF, but Simon Johnson has a very good analysis of what’s really going on: a failure of leadership and a failure to get control of the financial system from the banks.

Gorilla thinks: “There nothing left to lease in Greece!”

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Pretend And Extend

Friday, March 26th, 2010

In Euroland, it’s back to hit and hope…

Yes, the IMF can come in and help Greece out.

Yes, the French, Germans, and others may provide loans to Greece if necessary.

No, this won’t be nearly enough money to rescue Greece.

No, the main idea is enough dopes will buy Greek bonds to keep the spreads with German bonds sufficiently low so as not to wipe out the austerity measures already announced by Athens.

Yes, it proves that Euroland is not yet sustainable for its weakest members, and no, it won’t save the Germans from having to write a much larger check.

Today’s deal is an elaborate con job, which will be tested not only by the appetite for Greek debt, but how well Portuguese, Spanish, Italian, and Irish debt fares in the marketplace.

Gorilla’s conclusion: “The PIIGS will need a whacking great trough chock full of Euro swill!”

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I M(ean) F(allacy)

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

The IMF, proving there’s nothing like being ignored to produce the illusion of ignorance, says countries should start fiscal tightening in 2011!

It’s beyond stupid, all the way to pointless, to assert that an output gap in the trillions, virtually no growth anywhere other than China and India, and mass unemployment require fiscal discipline, when the exact opposite is desperately required: far greater stimulus in the US, Europe, and Japan, coupled with far greater domestic consumption by Germany and China.

Where is the inflation? Where are the higher interest rates? Where is it written that we should accept little or no growth for another decade?

Gorilla answers: “Somewhere with whips and chains in the IMF deficit fetish vault!”

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Show Me The Money

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Or words to that effect from the Greek President.

The problem for Greece is that the cost of borrowing the money necessary to meet its budget will more or less undo the fiscal tightening contained in that budget.

Euroland leaders have applauded the tightening, but not been willing to back it up with either lower interest loans or loan guarantees, with the result that the Greeks may turn to the IMF.

The money needed is on the order of a couple of hundred billion euros over the next 3 years, and so far Brussels has only pledged a possible 20 billion.

Once again, the main obstacle is Germany, which is engaged in a beggar thy neighbor export policy, doesn’t want to bail out irresponsible governments, doesn’t want to throw irresponsible governments out of Euroland, and would be delighted to see the euro drop another 20%.

Greece itself could withdraw from the eurozone, go back to the drachma, and devalue, but that would be at least as painful as what’s on offer at the moment.

So the IMF card will be played, mostly to call the German bluff.

Gorilla says: “Another round of moussaka and bratwurst poker!”

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The Deficit Itch: Not Yet Time To Scratch

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

So says the IMF, in its latest paper on Exit Strategies from the current financial crisis.

The IMF’s chief economist puts it bluntly: “Notwithstanding the recent pick-up in growth momentum, there is little evidence as yet that private demand is self-sustaining. Hence, fiscal and monetary stimulus may need to be maintained well into 2010, although if developments proceed as expected, withdrawal could begin in 2011.”

Developments so far have not proceeded as expected: growth in the US, Japan, and Europe is anemic, unemployment remains very high, and government stimulus packages have not been sufficiently large.

US politicians and Helicopter Ben hopefully will read this paper, and get serious about economic development and unemployment.

It’s very unlikely that anything other than a minor jobless recovery is on the cards before 2012, and it’s quite possible there will be a double dip recession.

Puny jobs bills, phony inflation fights, and fetishizing the deficit are not the solutions of people who claim to be leaders.

Gorilla thinks: “Put the deficit at bay and give us WPA!”

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Only Half Way There

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

The banks, that is, in coming clean about the losses on their balance sheets, according to the IMF.

And of course this is a Goingbackwardville problem that no one in Movingforwardville wants to acknowledge.

The banks at the moment are simply hoarding cash, in hopes that they can get through the coming tsunami of CRE defaults.

Kicking the can down the road remains the only financial services policy being pursued seriously by the Administration.

Increasing capital requirements is a good idea, but it should be remembered that Lehman Brothers was considered adequately capitalized by regulators.

The requirements themselves aren’t nearly high enough to prevent another credit-based disaster.

And the dollar carry trade looks like becoming the next bubble, once CRE has burst its banks.

Gorilla asks: “An agency to protect consumers is a fine idea, but which agency is going to protect the bankers from themselves?”

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