Posts Tagged ‘Middle East’

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Blogging Blues

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Gorilla loves to write, loves his blog, but also gets weary going over the same old issues that never get resolved.

For example, who cares who wins the Know Nothing party nomination? Absent a total economic breakdown in the next 6 months, President Obama should cruise to reelection.

Who cares about the US budget deficit? Actually, no one in power cares, but they’re stuck in a doom loop narrative of their own creation.

Cruise ships? Can’t be bothered.

Various Middle Eastern civil wars and other conflicts? Honestly, it’s great to see a somewhat fitful march towards democracy, but there’s no US national security interest involved in the region that doesn’t begin and end with oil.

So, Gorilla’s not been as frequently topical thus far in 2012.

Gorilla says: “Hoping the world obliges with more interesting news this Chinese New Year!”

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Early Non-Issues of 2012

Sunday, January 8th, 2012

Gorilla returns to the blog with a few insights from the outer limits on issues that won’t matter at all in 2012:

The Know Nothing Party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential Nominees: Whoever they are, they will lose the general election.

The US defense budget: Could easily be cut by 30-50%, but it’s a middle class jobs program, so it will remain, like ag subsidies, a symbol of what politicians will never touch in any serious way.

The Arab League: No, they won’t solve Syria, or any other Middle Eastern problem, because they never have.

Middle East peace: See The Arab League.

North Korea: Another dictator, another year of irrelevance.

Iranian noisemaking: They’re more concerned with consolidating their influence in Baghdad and Kabul. Cutting off the country’s main source of revenue is not on the agenda of the craziest of mullahs.

Unemployment: the great non-issue of 2008-12 continues to be ignored.

Russia: The KGB will continue running the place until Russians decide to be more like Syrians, and Russians won’t.

Gorilla says: “Pick your own issue, pretend it’s important, do nothing to address it, and you’ll be a viable non-issue expert in no time!”

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Another Dance Of Dunces

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

The Palestinians, who are entirely divided, want statehood, or something, and there’s zero chance the UN will go along…

The Israelis refuse to do anything about illegal settlements, and their current government has zero interest in peace.

And the “Quartet” pretends there’s a way forward!

Gorilla says: “Pay no attention to this garbage, not one person involved is serious about solving the problem!”

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Shorter Middle East Policy Speech

Friday, May 20th, 2011

Oil it remains, mixed with the vinegar of democracy and unserious peace.

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One Failure Goes, One Failure Stays

Friday, May 13th, 2011

George Mitchell, failed Middle East envoy, calls it quits!!!

Robert Mueller, failed FBI Director, gets another 2 years!!!

And this is what Washington’s all about these days: a lack of accountability, a recycling of the past, and a deep unwillingness to do anything serious at all about our failing country.

Gorilla says: “The reward for failure is more or less what the reward for failure has become!”

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Who’s Serious Now?

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

About peace in the Middle East?

The Egyptians are, the Palestinians may be, the Israelis aren’t, and the US is not yet an honest broker.

Gorilla says: “Tough on terror, not tough on the causes of terror!”

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Are They Serious?

Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

The Palestinians, that is, who have reached an Eqyptian-brokered “reconciliation” that will lead to new elections and a new government.

The big immediate question is: who will win? Fatah or Hamas?

And it is that Palestinian choice that will determine the medium-term negotiating possibilities, if any:

If Hamas wins, the US will have to make a choice: deal with a “terrorist” organization or accept that peace is as dead in the water as it appears to be.

If Fatah wins, Hamas will have to make a choice: cut the best deal you can for Palestinian statehood or resume lobbing bombs into Israel.

The current Israeli government is clearly not serious about peace and will not make or be pressured into any choice: they will try to fix the election for Fatah, but ultimately if Hamas wins, Israel will continue happily along the intransigent trail for another decade until demographics force a deal.

Gorilla says: “It’s not exactly hopeful, but it’s not completely hopeless!”

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Good Luck With That

Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

Ban Ki Moon’s unhappy with Israel, the settlements are bad for the peace process!!!

Of course, the assumption behind such criticism is that the Israelis and Palestinians are serious about peace: they’re not!

The time to stop the politically and morally bankrupt settlement policy was 30 years ago, when it began. At this point, no Israeli government is going to uproot their settlers, so trading other land for peace is the only way forward.

Equally, the Palestinians need a referendum, voted on by all their factions, to decide once and for all that they want a two state solution. Leaders like Abbas haven’t done so, because they just might lose.

And the US is, as usual, sitting on the sidelines.

As stupid a decision as the bombing of Libya was, our President knows there’s zero support in the US Congress for anything like pressure on the Israelis, and not enough Palestinians living in the US to offset AIPAC et. al. in 2012.

What will get the two sides to the table for serious negotiations? Only demographics.

So long as the Palestinians keep reproducing at a greater rate, Israelis may find themselves a minority in their own country.

But that won’t happen in earnest for at least another decade.

Gorilla says: “Like Libyan no fly zones, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Middle East peace at present is a pointless waste of time, treasure, and blood!”

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Also Only About One Thing

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

For the West, the Middle East is all about: oil!!!

Nothing else, we don’t care at all whether Gaddafi, Mubarak, and the rest stay or go, so long as the oil keeps flowing.

At the moment, the threat to our precious petroleum is minor, but if the Saudis go the way of all rage, then things really begin to change!

Gorilla says: “Drop the House of Saud and the fear sounds loud!!!”

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Bought Off Or Shot Off

Monday, February 14th, 2011

The real test of Middle Eastern protest movements will come in two countries: Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In Iran, there’s clearly an opposition movement, but it has not been willing or able to risk the thousands of deaths that would be necessary to topple the regime. Unlike Egypt, there’s no supposedly neutral side that remains above politics within the government structure: it’s all clerical all the time.

In Saudi Arabia, the regime survives primarily because it has the resources to buy opponents off and uses religious fervor as a safety valve to continue repression. Islamic extremism so far doesn’t extend to blowing up the Saudi oil fields, which would be a far more devastating act for the West than any other form of “terrorism”.

Gorilla says: “If the houses of Saud and Khomeini collapse, then you’d have a real revolution!”

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