Middle East peace: dead in the water again!
The Israelis have learned from the Know Nothing Party that this President can be rendered harmless simply through non-cooperation, or alternatively through non-cooperation once the President has finished negotiating all his chips away.
Why worry about being serious about peace when you know there’ll be no price paid for being intransigent?
Gorilla says: “When you have no clothes, you are the King Of Nothing!”
When the Israeli Foreign Minister says his party will do everything in its power to block the slowdown in illegal settlement construction, the current “peace process” is already dead in the water.
Throughout their political careers, neither the Foreign Minister nor the Prime Minister of Israel have ever displayed the slightest interest in making a deal with the Palestinians. The parties they represent in the Knesset will not allow them to halt settlement construction. This is spun by these Israeli politicians into a concern about “security”, allowing the current Israeli government to pursue precisely the same approach to peace that is displayed by Hamas.
The US cannot be an honest broker for peace until and unless there is a willingness to exact a price from the Israelis for their continued intransigence and a willingness to deal with Hamas as a legitimate representative of the Palestinians. There is no political support in the US for doing anything against Israel and uncertain political support within the Palestinian community for the “two state solution”.
So the dance of the peace fairies continues.
Dramatic gestures are needed from the Administration, such as a referendum asking Palestinians once and for all to support two states, bilateral talks with Iran to address the nuclear issue and Hamas to address the peace process, a summit of Arab leaders to recognize the state of Israel, and a willingness to substantially reduce foreign aid to Israel if their intransigence about settlements, Jerusalem, etc. continues.
Given the Administration’s historical preference to avoid confrontation on far more important issues, like the fate of the US economy, this round of “talks” will be as fruitless as all the others since 1978 have been.
Gorilla says: “If you don’t put up, you might as well shut up!”
Here they go again, the Israelis and Palestinians in yet another round of peace negotiations.
And the lack of seriousness on both sides remains.
The Israelis simply will not tear down the illegal settlements they’ve been building for 30 years. There is also no evidence whatever that the current Israeli prime minister and his extremist coalition have any tangible commitment to negotiations, much less to an agreement.
The Palestinians remain completely divided, as this week’s Hamas attack on Israeli settlers demonstrates. What’s needed is a referendum to decide once and for all whether there is substantial popular support for the two-state solution. What’s feared is that the Palestinians may vote no.
President Obama’s hands are tied. There’s no support in the US for bringing the Israelis into line, and no belief in the Middle East that the US is an honest broker.
Gorilla says: “Extend and pretend is all that’s on offer these days!”
Why is Middle East peace so far off the track?
Because the two sides aren’t serious about peace and the US isn’t willing to do anything whatever to cajole either side into making concessions.
Latest case in point: a rocket defense system to shoot down the missiles lobbed into Israel by Hamas and Hezbollah.
Nothing wrong with pissing away more money on defense systems, or at least nothing wrong that anyone wants to correct, but the overwhelming impression left is that the US is neither a serious nor an honest broker.
Settlements? For all the rhetoric, the US isn’t attaching any price to Israeli intransigence.
Palestinian unity? Hard to see this happening so long as Hamas remains ignored and on the sidelines, free to toss rockets into Israel whenever it likes. Even the Russians are talking to them!
Gorilla says: “Talks about talks, while bullshit walks!”
Today’s Middle East non-starter: the elimination of nuclear weapons from the region!
Given that only Israel has nuclear weapons at present, and has shown zero interest in either conventional peace talks or giving up WMD, it’s difficult to understand what anyone expects to accomplish at yet another non-proliferation conference.
In many way, the Copenhagen Syndrome of these surreal efforts comes down to this:
1) As in Copenhagen with climate change, the US isn’t really serious about non-proliferation. If we were, then we’d be compelling India, Pakistan, and Israel to join the IAEA inspections regime, and allowing inspectors to have a look at our own arsenal.
2) The US isn’t about to put any pressure on Israel in an election year, or frankly in any year. There’s zero domestic political gain in taking the Israelis on, whether in “talks about talks” or in “talks about talks about treaties”.
3) Deterrence has a very fungible definition. Applied to “great powers”, it means having enough destructive power to convince one’s enemies not to attack. Applied to the Middle East, it means keeping one friendly power nuclear and hoping no one else anywhere in the region either notices or responds.
Gorilla says: “Hard to be hostile to your captors when you’re the one who arranged the kidnapping!”
Hillary Clinton, backing down on Israel for America, as everyone in the world knew would happen.
Why?
Here’s Matthew Yglesias pointing out the obvious: there’s no political support whatever in the United States for any kind of retaliation against Israel, no matter what Israel does.
So, back will go George Mitchell for another round of proximity talks.
Israel will come to the table for a serious negotiation only when it decides that its future as a Jewish state is under threat. Both demographics and time are on the Palestinian side and the Israelis aren’t completely stupid.
The Palestinians will come to the table for a serious negotiation only when they decide that some kind of state is better than another 60 years of being stateless.
At the moment, neither side is serious about peace, so the US shouldn’t waste any further time on forcing them to get serious; both sides know we have zero leverage.
Gorilla says: “Getting Republicans to vote for any bill introduced by any Democrat is a walk in the park, when compared to getting Jews and Palestinians to divvy up their park!”
With Iran, that is, they don’t think sanctions or a military strike are very good ideas.
And they want to avoid a nuclear arms race in the region.
So, the ball’s back in Hillary’s court. There’s little support for sanctions, which haven’t had much impact on Iran. There’s even less support for a US or Israeli strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, assuming we even know where they all are.
What everyone other than Washington would get behind is a bilateral US-Iranian deal, followed by a wider regional agreement to limit nuclear proliferation.
The outlines are in place: a security guarantee and civilian nuclear power for Iran in exchange for IAEA inspections, no nuclear weapons and the resumption of US-Iranian diplomatic relations.
It’s difficult to understand what America’s national security goals are in the Middle East and Central Asia. Terrorism isn’t much more than a minor irritation. Oil is flowing and it’s in the interest of nearly all the bad actors to keep it flowing. Palestinian-Israeli peace is not achievable, but time and demographics will eventually force both sides to get serious.
Successive Administrations have gotten bogged down in fear and loathing. We won’t be staying in Afghanistan for decades, and that’s the only way the country will be peaceful. We can’t get into Pakistan as we would like, so we’ll have to keep trying to convince Islamabad to crack down on the nutters. Iraq may well return to civil war, but there’s not much we can do about it. We’re not serious about removing our dependence on fossil fuels, so we keep having to play policeman for the Seven Sisters in a very dangerous neighborhood.
Ten years have been wasted on a region that we would treat like Africa if the oil disappeared, and we haven’t learned a thing.
Gorilla thinks: “We’ll get grown ups when we start acting like grown ups!”
Whichever side you care to select in the Middle East peace negotiations!
The Palestinians remain divided, the Israeli government has zero interest in a permanent settlement, and the United States is too busy floundering around in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen.
Gorilla thinks: “Hard to divide the pie when on everyone’s faces!”
These were the events that mattered most in Gorilla’s world this week:
Obama in Asia: Nothing new here, we’re waiting for the Chinese currency to appreciate, while secretly delighted that our own is tanking. We’re waiting for the Chinese to do something about climate change, while secretly delighted that like us, they’re doing absolutely nothing. Gorilla believes the bilateral relationship with China will become the most important parley of this century, because it will assist us in managing our own decline as a superpower. The Chinese aren’t ready to lead, which is just fine by us, and won’t be until the Communist Party disappears, aka sometime after 2025.
Health Care: Science again gets in the way of politics. It’s easy to understand why nobody in the medical-industrial complex wants serious effectiveness studies, unless those studies demonstrate the need for more revenue enhancing treatments. Patients, on the other hand, love their doctors’ advice and their pink ribbons, even when these are pointless. Meanwhile, the Senate unveils yet another version of health care reform, leaving 20 million people uninsured, providing opt-outs for the states, keeping the foolish tie to employment, and establishing an independent commission with no actual power to reduce costs. Gorilla thinks we’ll have a bill by Christmas, and we’ll have actual health care reform by Christmas 2020.
Afghanistan: Our guy Karzai is sworn in for another term, promises to do better, and remains a sideshow pinata who periodically snaps our attention to the near total lack of a coherent Afpak policy. Obama continues to decide not to decide, and the Taliban continue to bomb their way to the negotiating table. Gorilla is confident we’ll begin heading out the door by the end of 2010.
EU: Rompy van Pompuy (actually, it’s Herman van Pompuy, but if you can’t joke about Belgians the world indeed would be a much smaller place) is the new EU President. Baroness Ashton is the new EU Foreign Minister. At least the banana war with Latin America looks like concluding. Gorilla suggests it’s even money that these two new high moguls will never be heard from again.
US Economy: Could be headed for an even more painful second recession, because the same sort of idiots who kept the US depressed in 1937 are making the same sort of noises today. Unemployment will continue above 10%, house prices will fall further, and feckless leaders will continue to do nothing except talk about balanced budgets and belt tightening. Gorilla suggests we won’t be any better off by 2012 and that Obama is starting to look and sound very much like Jimmy Carter.
Middle East Peace: Completely dead in the water now that the Israelis are building more settlements. The US is stuck in the middle with no leverage over 2 sides that aren’t serious about anything other than self-preservation. Gorilla does not expect anything more than ring around the rosy for at least another year.
Iran: Back on the radar screen, and doing its very best to avoid cutting a deal. The whole processing abroad thing is a neat idea but essentially a non-starter. The Russians and the Chinese aren’t going to do much, so it will be up to Obama to decide whether he can live with a nuclear Iran that isn’t likely to be more than a fifth-rate threat for another 5 years. Gorilla therefore believes a deal will be cut, and Obama will visit Tehran in 2013; only even money at the moment that he will do so as President.
These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:
Afghanistan: A deal is in the works, despite all the posturing, or rather the indecision, about sending in more troops. There’s no public support within NATO for an endless occupation, so the window of opportunity (cut deal, train troops, peace with honor) is at most 18-24 months. Gorilla thinks we’ll be on the way out in the next 12 months.
The Asian Two Step: President Obama again pleads with the Chinese to let the yuan appreciate. The Chinese again make noises about protectionism and the dollar. Since both sides prefer this outcome, both will claim victory. Gorilla suggests the dollar will fall further and the yuan will begin to rise over the next 12 months.
Elections Do Not Peace Make: The Palestinians, yet again, cannot find a way to unify Hamas and Fatah, whose positions on peace are fundamentally opposed. So the election can will be kicked down the road a few months, sufficient to guarantee no progress for at least a year. Gorilla believes this is the outcome all sides want, so he’s not particularly worried about how unserious the Israelis and Palestinians decide to be.
Trying The Mastermind: The 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheik Mohammed, will be tried in the US after all. All the Guantanamo detainees could have been tried in the US and/or released by now, but politically it’s much better to continue cowering, increase middle class jobs programs like the Pentagon, and pretend that the fate of the civilized world depends on defeating a handful of fifth-rate terrorists who occasionally get lucky. Gorilla is certain Guantanamo will close in 2010, only 8 years behind schedule.
The Dollar Carry Trade Goes On: Will Ben Bernanke at last decide that bubbles are not the only thing America consistently produces? It’s a tricky question. Raising interest rates would show resolve, whatever that is, but not doing so demonstrates conclusively that big US commercial banks remain zombies. Gorilla foresees a few more years of deleveraging, living standards declining, and unemployment, sans another large stimulus package, won’t recover for a decade. Gorilla thinks the writing is on the wall, but the oracle of Maiden Lane isn’t interested in reading the message. Much better to be defending one’s turf near the barn door while the next horse bolts for greener pastures…
Gorilla’s Blog