Posts Tagged ‘movingforwardville’

TGIF And Predictions

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

*Health care reform went nowhere in the US Senate. There’ll be a bill of some kind passed, but it won’t be much more than window dressing. Most people will continue being satisfied with their health insurance until they lose their jobs or get sick. Gorilla thinks a golden opportunity has been blown, but remains confident we’ll eventually do something serious when the bill really comes due in 10-15 years.

*The US economy remains dead in the water. In Goingbackwardville, the banks still haven’t come clean and unemployment is approaching 10%. The stimulus is the only thing keeping Movingforwardville slightly upright. There’s a desperate need for more stimulus, but there’s also a total lack of political leadership. Short of the unemployed retraining to become Olympic athletes or bank regulators, Gorilla believes the economy will not begin to come off a non-inventory building bottom until 2011 or 2012. Unemployment will stay high for a decade.

*A new fossil was found that pushes human evolution even further back than originally thought. Gorilla suggests that the evolution away from religion may take a bit longer.

*The US and Iran finally engaged in bilateral negotiations. President Obama played his hand very well. Gorilla thinks the deals will be coming thick and fast over the next 12-18 months, and foresees a time when we will treat the Middle East filling station like we now treat Africa.

*The Chinese celebrated 60 years of the East being Red. Gorilla doubts there will be such a ceremony in 2049.

*Honduras continues the dance of the idiot politicians. These were joined on Friday by a delegation of our idiot politicians, who seem to think that military coups and the suspension of civil liberties are ok. Gorilla believes this will be resolved at the next election, when Honduras will choose a new idiot and Senator DeMint will remain an old idiot.

*General McChrystal submitted his new plan for Afghanistan, which is essentially the old plan with a few more troops and trainers. Gorilla believes we’ll be on the way out within 12 months.

*The Irish voted on the EU Treaty and the 2016 Olympics were awarded to Brazil. Gorilla thinks this would not make any more difference if it was the other way round.

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Not Getting Better

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Unemployment claims continue to be above 500,000.

If the economy was growing reasonably well, claims should be below 350,000.

But that’s of no interest in Movingfowardville, where everything’s getting better, sort of, and the cans keep rattling down the road.

Gorilla says: “More pain with no gain!”

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Only Half Way There

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

The banks, that is, in coming clean about the losses on their balance sheets, according to the IMF.

And of course this is a Goingbackwardville problem that no one in Movingforwardville wants to acknowledge.

The banks at the moment are simply hoarding cash, in hopes that they can get through the coming tsunami of CRE defaults.

Kicking the can down the road remains the only financial services policy being pursued seriously by the Administration.

Increasing capital requirements is a good idea, but it should be remembered that Lehman Brothers was considered adequately capitalized by regulators.

The requirements themselves aren’t nearly high enough to prevent another credit-based disaster.

And the dollar carry trade looks like becoming the next bubble, once CRE has burst its banks.

Gorilla asks: “An agency to protect consumers is a fine idea, but which agency is going to protect the bankers from themselves?”

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FDIC Follies

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Once again, rather than making surviving banks and Wall Street pay for the disaster the country finds itself in, the FDIC, now rapidly running out of money as more banks fail, proposes its very own ponzi scheme.

The agency has asked banks to prepay deposit insurance fees now for the period 2010-2012. The banks get to list the fees as an asset, then charge it off as an expense once it’s paid.

The alternatives of course are not to the liking of politicians or bankers.

Politicians don’t want the FDIC to borrow from the US Treasury, even though it can by law, because this might be seen to be “bailing out the banks”, which as we know by now is only what happened in Goingbackwardville…

Bankers don’t want to pay extra insurance fees and say (apparently with a straight face!) they are worried that larger fees will limit their ability to borrow capital!!!

The FDIC solution assumes that there won’t be as many problem banks in 2012 as there are now. If it turns out they’re wrong, well, they can assess special fees on the banks or borrow from the Treasury!

Kicking the can down the road remains the only policy approach in Movingforwardville!

Gorilla thinks: “Irony is a wonderful thing. It too will be securitized faster than you can say Bernie Madoff!!!”

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Our Very Own Stabilized Zombie

Monday, September 21st, 2009

AIG, of course!

The GAO says AIG’s condition has “stabilized”, whatever that means, but long-term survival depends, surprise!, on “the long-term health of the company, market conditions, and continued government support.”

We’re in for $185 billion so far, we’ve softened the bailout conditions 3 times, and yet another AIG-sponsored Congressman thinks we should ease the debt burdens further.

Bottom line? Taxpayers are unlikely ever to be paid back.

AIG, like Citibank, Merrill, GM, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Fannie, Freddie and BoA, should have been nationalized, its assets sold off, its shareholders and debt holders wiped out, and its directors and management fired. This would have enabled the country to regain some control over Wall Street and to restore the principle of moral hazard.

Instead, Washington continues to play kick the can down the road, so the salaries and bubbles continue, because there’s always hope for the future in Movingforwardville!!!

Gorilla concludes: “Remember the next time someone mentions Goingbackwardville: There’s no again without AIG!”

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This Week’s George T. Platter And Bait

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

The tidetime folklorist wonders where in the Bible is the passage: “Thy shall not blaspheme the medical-industrial complex, nor temper with their profits, lest ye be smote with the apostasy of bipartisanship”.

This Week’s Platter: “We’re In The Money” (Max Baucus and other golddiggers post- ’33 keep the happy talk going in Movingforwardville)

This Week’s Bait: The Original Hope and Change Drone Spoon (teabags not included)

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A Plan, No Men: Napalm None

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Another round for the Geneva Initiative, this time even more detailed and even less likely.

It’s difficult to make peace when one side isn’t serious and the other side can’t deliver.

Gorilla says: “60 years of no progress in Goingbackwardville means pretending some more in Movingforwardville!”

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Judgment Day

Monday, September 14th, 2009

So, how’s the SEC doing these days, as part of the financial regulatory reform so beloved by the happy talkers in Movingforwardville?

Any progress on that Bank Of America settlement?

The proposed settlement, the judge continued, “suggests a rather cynical relationship between the parties: the S.E.C. gets to claim that it is exposing wrongdoing on the part of the Bank of America in a high-profile merger; the bank’s management gets to claim that they have been coerced into an onerous settlement by overzealous regulators. And all this is done at the expense, not only of the shareholders, but also of the truth.”

Gorilla says: “Guess they’re all stuck in Goingbackwardville, what they need is some Chinese rubber to meet the road ahead!!!”

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TGIF And Predictions

Friday, September 11th, 2009

This is what mattered in the world this week:

*President Obama gave a good speech about health care. Nothing much will change in terms of reform, because there aren’t enough votes for the public option and the Congress doesn’t really want to take on the medical industrial complex. Gorilla says a bill will be done by November, but window dressing and no competition will be the main features of what has been a gloriously wasted opportunity.

*Hamid Karzai has won the Afghan election, possibly on the back of massive fraud. This doesn’t matter since he’s the candidate the West wants to be President of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Democratic Congressional voices are starting to question the need for more American troops. Gorilla believes we’ll be on our way out within a year.

*Iran continues to be an unresolved problem, having first refused to negotiate on the nuclear issue, then proposing to tie it to an overall Middle East settlement. It seems likely that the Russians were smuggling arms to Iran via the mystery ship, and it is clear there is no Russian support for further sanctions against Iran. Gorilla thinks we’ll be negotiating bilaterally with Iran and North Korea within 6-12 months.

*While happy talk continues in Movingforwardville about the end of the recession, there is very little evidence that things are getting better with the US economy. Unemployment continues to rise, median incomes are falling, many banks remain insolvent, the dollar is tanking again (although this is actually a good thing in terms of US exports), and Wall Street has started on the next round of bubble dancing. Gorilla believes there are more bad shoes to drop in the coming months, particularly from the financial service and housing industries, while the consumer will remain on the sidelines for another year.

*French President Sarkozy’s decision to levy a carbon tax marks the first semi-serious Western effort to deal with climate change. Alas, there’s no corresponding initiative being undertaken by larger polluting nations, either because they’re waiting for each other to make the first move or they lack the political support domestically to do anything serious. Gorilla foresees yet another G-20 summit of loftily vague promises and no real progress.

*8th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The greatest intelligence failure in American history continues. Gorilla suggests that not catching Osama bin Laden and his cohorts is more or less of a piece with not holding American governmental officials accountable for torture and the greatest economic disaster since the Depression. As we now know, Goingbackwardville doesn’t do accountability at all, but it does amorality very well.

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Who’s Overboard On The Mystery Ship?

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

The strange saga deepens of the ship that disappeared in the English Channel, only to reemerge somewhere off Africa.

It is now claimed that the ship was transporting missiles from Russia to Iran. The Russian Foreign Minister denies this, and promises a full, transparent investigation.

Transparency is not a quality one associates immediately with the Putin regime, Russia currently being 147 out of 180 on Transparency International’s 2008 Corruption Perception Index.

What the missile story may indicate is that Russia can’t be relied on as a partner and isn’t serious about sanctions when it comes to Iran. Hopefully, this is already self-evident to the concerned happy talkers of Movingforwardville.

Gorilla thinks: “Better hit the reset button again before walking the plank!”

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