Posts Tagged ‘Nobel Peace Prize’

TGIF And Predictions

Friday, December 11th, 2009

These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:

Health care reform: Farewell, public option, hello, Medicare buy-in! All very minor league stuff. Single payer is the way to go, and Gorilla believes that’s where we’ll be by 2025.

Nobel Peace Prize: An interesting speech from President Obama on the rationale for “just” war. War apparently is peace by other means. The difficulty with all this nuanced rhetoric is that it doesn’t match up with actual policy. The Administration is still defending the right of government officials to spy on Americans and to commit crimes with impunity. The Administration is all for nuclear non-proliferation, but conventional proliferation remains big business. Gorilla thinks that all this pragmatism is fine, but wishes there would be an occasional foray into non-opinion poll-based foreign policy.

Human Rights Day: A reminder of how little can be done to address major problems. Nobody’s going to war, justly or unjustly, for Darfur, the Congo, Guinea, or Zimbabwe. The plight of women and children in most countries remains appalling. Gorilla suggests that progress can be made, at the grassroots and at the margins, if there’s a willingness to see it through with political and economic capital.

Climate change: Copenhagen peters away like a deflated gas bag. There’s no political support anywhere in the developed world for doing anything that requires big money, big sacrifice, or big risks. We’re waiting for the Chinese and Indians to do something, they’re waiting for us, and it’s convenient for everyone that nothing much gets done. Gorilla predicts that serious climate change policy will come only when climate change is a serious threat, roughly 20 years from now.

US Economy: The figures remain dire. We need to be adding 300,000 jobs/month just to stay even with population and trendline growth; last month we lost another 11,000. Retail sales are barely above inflation. The mortgage modification program has been a total failure. The hoarding by banks goes on, while credit tightens further. There’s no real leadership coming from Washington as everyone gears up for the 2010 elections. Gorilla thinks the Democrats will get a severe and deserved kicking at the polls next November.

Iraq: The bombers are back, or rather they never went away. Despite all the surging, 7 Iraqis die violently every day. Gorilla thinks the civil war will resume in 2012.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: The denial dance goes on. President Karzai still hasn’t named a cabinet. Pakistan still hasn’t done anything about Baluchistan. America still hasn’t captured any top al-Qaeda leaders. Gorilla has moved his withdrawal timetable from late 2010 to mid 2011, and still believes we’ll be mostly out by 2015.

Share

TGIF And Predictions

Friday, October 9th, 2009

These were the events of importance in Gorilla’s world this week:

*The rethink about Afghanistan goes on. The Administration is caught between a rock (Afghanistan is sinking back into civil war) and a hard place (the terrorists we want to stop aren’t in Afghanistan, they’re in Pakistan and we can’t just go get ‘em). Gorilla believes there will be a few more troops announced, so as to quiet the Know Nothing Party, but that we’ll be on the road to withdrawl by the end of 2010.

*The US economy remains stalled. Many believe the bottom has been hit, but unemployment remains high (and will likely rise), the housing crash goes on (a wave of foreclosures in both residential and CRE is coming), and the need for lots more stimulus, particularly an extension of benefits and aid to the states, remains acute. Gorilla thinks our leaders are pissing into the wind, but eventually they’ll get around to doing something useful in terms of direct stimulus (and wasteful in terms of more tax cuts) before the year is out.

*The UN’s climate change talks are stalled. The US is not really serious about climate change. Beyond the rhetoric, there just aren’t the votes in Congress for a carbon tax, which would be the quickest way to reduce global warming and encourage alternative technologies. This also benefits our fellow polluters in China and the EU, since they don’t have to do anything serious until we do. Gorilla suggests that even cap and trade is a political non-starter and nothing much will be done on the issue over the next 12-18 months.

*Health care reform moves slowly but surely to the end game. The newest gimmick, an opt-out for states from a national public insurance option, may finally get something passed, but the fact remains that these plans do not cover all Americans and do nothing very much about containing the power and expense of insurance companies, doctors, and Big Pharma. Gorilla says there’ll be a bill, with some kind of phony public option, and we’ll really get around to doing something more serious about health care in 2015-20.

*Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. It’s a good thing for America, although the Know Nothing Party will no doubt experience apoplexy. Gorilla believes the neocon era of unilateralism, fear and greed is drawing to a close, but is not certain that peace per se will be the replacement; it’s a complicated world.

Share

Prizing

Friday, October 9th, 2009

President Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, which is remarkable.

It’s remarkable as a word of thanks from the rest of the world. America is no longer perceived as a unilateralist and lawless nation driven only by fear.

It’s remarkable because Obama actually has done very little to achieve peace, beyond making a few eloquent speeches.

It’s remarkable to see the return of some hope to the world’s dialogues.

Gorilla says: “It’s remarkable that America can still be seen positively after the last 8 years of garbage!”

Share