Another suicide bombing in the Afghan capital, aimed at foreigners.
What’s interesting about this one is that the targets were Indian, which might indicate, yet again, that the Pakistan-India conflict is now being brought to Afghanistan by the Pakistani government.
Of course, happy bilateral talk also coincided with the bombing, so it seems clear both sides in that conflict are preparing for the day after the US departs.
Gorilla says: “Pakistan’s playing the middle against both sides!”
Today’s bombings: in Pakistan and in Iraq…
These were aimed at Shiites attending religious festivals, and were presumably detonated by or at the behest of Sunnis.
In Pakistan, Sunnis are the majority, in Iraq, the Shiites hold sway.
These religion-based civil wars appear to be beyond our control, and certainly beyond the control of the local governments.
It’s difficult to square our national security strategy in these regions, which is essentially to keep Islamic terrorists from attacking in the West, with the reality on the ground in places where terrorists live: there aren’t any jobs, village life is more or less medieval, and the populations are easy targets for the ravings and the bombs of religious fanatics.
No amount of soldiers will change the situation, and it’s very unlikely that weak and corrupt governments can do anything more than pursue containment in those regions they tenuously control.
What’s frustrating and depressing about all this is that these problems don’t get discussed by our political leaders.
They seem stuck on either fear (“they’ll be attacking by July!”) or on anger (“we’ll show these ragwearers a thing or two!”).
And they certainly want to do anything to avoid admitting that we don’t have a clue about what’s going on in Iraq, Pakistan, or Afghanistan, or that the threat a few thousand fifth-rate terrorists pose to our way of life is extremely minimal.
We’re not winning anything, we’re not nation building, and we’re not promoting democracy: we’re essentially a marginal player in a religious civil war.
Gorilla says: “It’s their fight, not ours, and so far they want to keep fighting!”
In Pakistan, 3 American trainers have been blown up.
Yet another roadside bomb, this time in northwest Pakistan, demonstrating again that a $700 billion military isn’t able to do much against small bands with cheap homemade weapons.
Gorilla says: “But we’ll keep droning our way to quagmire, count on it!”
Pakistan can’t be bothered to go after the Taliban bases, but a few drones would certainly make them feel better about it!
Defense Secretary Gates says our relationship with Pakistan is all about building trust, and he’s right, because nobody trusts either the Pakistani government or the Pakistani military.
But a dozen drones won’t make a bit of difference, there’s a need for a large army to get the job done. That army’s currently astride the border with India, propping up Islamabad’s paranoid fantasies.
Gorilla thinks: “More drones, more loans, it’s all Baluchistan to me!”
Pakistan won’t be increasing its offensive against domestic militants this year.
The problem with this stance is that nothing’s really being done to destroy Taliban bases in western Pakistan, so the surge in Afghanistan is unlikely to succeed.
Moreover, the continuing Pakistani obsession with India means most of the army remains deployed along the border with India.
It’s a clear snub to the Administration, and a frank recognition that the government in Islamabad is too weak to take the kind of risks US officials are demanding.
The US has very little leverage and no willingness to take the Afghan war over the border.
So, the drones will be bombing and nothing much will change.
Gorilla thinks: “We’re getting Swatted out of the park!”
The pygmies are on the march and a catfight is coming!
The CIA’s operational impact in Afghanistan is marginally relevant, according to a report by the senior US military intelligence official in the country.
The report said US intelligence officials and analysts were “ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the power-brokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects … and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers.”
Even this irrelevancy seems like small beer compared to the agency’s inability to find Osama bin Laden or its hiring of a double agent Jordanian suicide bomber.
On the other hand, the Pentagon’s had 100,000 troops and 100,000 contractors in Afghanistan, and can’t say with a straight face that they’re doing much better against the Taliban or corruption.
The Afpak policy remains one of total confusion: are we after al-Qaeda, which isn’t in Afghanistan? are we propping up a corrupt government that rigged the last election? are we preparing to invade Pakistan, where al-Qaeda and the Taliban actually operate? how do we sustain economic development that’s not wholly dependent on the drug trade? how much longer will we be there?
Gorilla thinks: “We need a full brain scan before the next US bound flight of fancy!”
It’s been a rough week on the terrorism front, what with the underwear bomber and the deaths of 8 or more Americans by suicide bomber in Afghanistan.
The problem in Afghanistan remains the same: we’re not going to win a war against the Taliban so long as we: 1) continue backing a corrupt government that is doing nothing for the Afghan people, 2) cannot take the fight over the border to Pakistan, and 3) have no clear exit strategy beyond “surge, wait a year, hit and hope”.
The problem in the global war on terror, or whatever it’s being called this week, remains the same: we’re not going to win so long as we never bring economic development and a sense of hope to backward lands in the Middle East and Central Asia.
We don’t have enough troops or enough intelligence to succeed 100% of the time against suicide bombers, and our political leaders aren’t willing to tell Americans that life is full of risks, of which that of terrorism is infinitesimal.
Gorilla thinks it’s time to move on with some American reconstruction and development, at the time of the worst economic conditions since the Depression: “The GWOT don’t hit the spot!”
These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:
Health care reform: Farewell, public option, hello, Medicare buy-in! All very minor league stuff. Single payer is the way to go, and Gorilla believes that’s where we’ll be by 2025.
Nobel Peace Prize: An interesting speech from President Obama on the rationale for “just” war. War apparently is peace by other means. The difficulty with all this nuanced rhetoric is that it doesn’t match up with actual policy. The Administration is still defending the right of government officials to spy on Americans and to commit crimes with impunity. The Administration is all for nuclear non-proliferation, but conventional proliferation remains big business. Gorilla thinks that all this pragmatism is fine, but wishes there would be an occasional foray into non-opinion poll-based foreign policy.
Human Rights Day: A reminder of how little can be done to address major problems. Nobody’s going to war, justly or unjustly, for Darfur, the Congo, Guinea, or Zimbabwe. The plight of women and children in most countries remains appalling. Gorilla suggests that progress can be made, at the grassroots and at the margins, if there’s a willingness to see it through with political and economic capital.
Climate change: Copenhagen peters away like a deflated gas bag. There’s no political support anywhere in the developed world for doing anything that requires big money, big sacrifice, or big risks. We’re waiting for the Chinese and Indians to do something, they’re waiting for us, and it’s convenient for everyone that nothing much gets done. Gorilla predicts that serious climate change policy will come only when climate change is a serious threat, roughly 20 years from now.
US Economy: The figures remain dire. We need to be adding 300,000 jobs/month just to stay even with population and trendline growth; last month we lost another 11,000. Retail sales are barely above inflation. The mortgage modification program has been a total failure. The hoarding by banks goes on, while credit tightens further. There’s no real leadership coming from Washington as everyone gears up for the 2010 elections. Gorilla thinks the Democrats will get a severe and deserved kicking at the polls next November.
Iraq: The bombers are back, or rather they never went away. Despite all the surging, 7 Iraqis die violently every day. Gorilla thinks the civil war will resume in 2012.
Afghanistan and Pakistan: The denial dance goes on. President Karzai still hasn’t named a cabinet. Pakistan still hasn’t done anything about Baluchistan. America still hasn’t captured any top al-Qaeda leaders. Gorilla has moved his withdrawal timetable from late 2010 to mid 2011, and still believes we’ll be mostly out by 2015.
5 Americans were arrested in Pakistan, and the FBI’s suspicion is they were over there for jihad.
What’s really interesting about the story are two things:
1) The Hapless Five were turned down by every Pakistani group they approached. This says that there’s either no shortage of terrorists on the ground, or that jihadi groups want better quality recruits.
2) The FBI knew nothing about the Hapless Five until an American Muslim group called to report they were missing. So much for all that vaunted surveillance and the budget justifying foreign trips!
Gorilla says: “Surging won’t work when the terrorists are purging!”
These were the events that mattered in Gorilla’s world this week:
Afghanistan: The surge is surging, contrary to General McChrystal this is the beginning of the end. One year max is all the time that’s left to sort of straighten things out; the odds do not favor our doing so. There remain more contractors than troops in Afghanistan, and there’s little evidence that all the money is doing much good. Gorilla remains confident that we’ll be heading out by the end of next year, with full withdrawal by 2013.
Pakistan: More important than the Obama speech was his decision to authorize more covert action and more drone strikes inside Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether Pakistan is serious about cleaning out the Taliban from places like Baluchistan, or finding al-Qaeda leaders in Waziristan. The greater fear is that Pakistan will use the American withdrawal and/or the fear of India as an excuse to maintain the status quo. Gorilla thinks we’ll eventually have to decide whether to go into Pakistan, with or without Pakistani approval, particularly when it becomes apparent that Afghanistan is a lost cause.
Unemployment: Good news about the overall rate doesn’t change the fact that continued claims are way too high and that economic growth at present is insufficient to make a real dent. The jobs summit was a fiasco, there’s still no sense of seriousness in Washington that unemployment may not come down significantly for many years. Gorilla predicts that the lowest level of unemployment in President Obama’s term will remain that of February 2009 (over 7%).
Health care reform: Heading to the finish line, but the effort remains very minor. The breast cancer debacle says that politicians aren’t willing to do anything about costs or insist on anything like efficiency. Gorilla believes that we’ll all be in Medicare by 2025 at the latest.
Climate change: A week full of announcements signifying nothing. Copenhagen is dead in the water and, as with so many issues, there’s no appetite for shared sacrifice of any kind. Gorilla believes we’ll have national health care before we seriously tackle climate change.
US Economy: Still growing anemically. The housing market bust continues. The CRE bust is on the horizon. The banks remain zombies as the next wave of foreclosures arrives. Ben Bernanke fails again and gets another term in office. The rich continue to enjoy the estate tax extension, while the politicians continue to party like it’s 1937. Gorilla thinks it will be at least 2 years, if not longer, before the economy is growing at a healthy rate (above 4%).
Blogging: Two of Gorilla’s favorite bloggers, Willem Buiter of the Financial Times and John Jansen of Across The Curve, announced that they’re retiring to pursue other opportunities. Gorilla will remain opportunistic while pursuing retirement.
