Euroland Meltdown: They may be able to muddle through for another year, but the fundamental imbalances between Germany and the rest of Euroland remain unaddressed, while borrowing costs for all continue to rise. Greece will exit the Euro, with the Portuguese, Irish, and Spanish not far behind. All bets are on if both Sarkozy and Merkel lose their elections.

Arab Springing: The real question is whether or not the nascent Arab Spring movements will come to countries where the West has real (read: oil) interests: Bahrain and the other Gulf States plus Saudi Arabia. So far, these nondemocratic countries have been able to buy off their populations, but the combination of aging leadership and vast youth unemployment could well become toxic.

Environmental Change: A major catalyst on the downside for the global economy. It’s tempting to put global warming in the same non-issue category as unemployment, since very little of substance is being done by anyone to address the problem. On the other hand, more violent weather is, like protofascist movements in Euroland, not something that can be ignored without cost.

The Winding Down Of Pointless Wars: It’s clear that there’ll be both negotiations and a swift exit from Afghanistan, on or before 2014. It’s also clear that the US military isn’t ready to overthrow any more tiresome regimes anytime soon. The international community’s policy is evolving from “protecting civilians” to “stand by and deal with whoever’s left”; civil wars will continue but the appetite for involvement in them will decrease.

Wild Cards: The failing states of Pakistan and Mexico. What happens there will intrude, possibly in a more direct and violent way, on the West’s hit, hope, and ignore strategy.

Gorilla says: “Two words that may sum up 2012: Northwest Passage!”

Gorilla says: “Our generals are always the last to know!!!”

Gorilla translates: “(bin Laden) was exactly where I said he couldn’t be”.

Turns out that Pakistan, which created the Taliban (along with Saudi Arabia), has links to a militant group that’s carrying out attacks on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

This is of course no surprise, given that the West is also funding the Taliban through our demand for opiates.

What is equally unsurprising is the Pentagon’s inability to win a pointless war, 10 years and several trillion dollars on.

Gorilla says: “Accountability? We’re certainly not funding that!”

And yet these same officials are well aware of the problem, since our military assistance helps make it all possible!

And some other officials worry that Pakistan’s fetish with India will prevent them from cracking down on militants and the Taliban!

And still other officials wonder how we’ll win in Afghanistan when Pakistan is on both sides!

Gorilla says: “Officially, it’s a total mess!”

And Daniel Pearl’s killer is contained in Guantanamo, but we’re much too afraid to try him in the US, they might get off!, and the Pentagon never gets off, while our ally Pakistan puts whomever they like on trial, declares victory, and continues to support al-Qaeda and the Taliban…

Gorilla says: “Out of many, few are committed to doing the right thing!”

Gorilla translates: “Every backward society embraces guns and god, they are ever ready excuses for never going forward!”

Any country that has a blasphemy law cannot be considered modern. In Pakistan, the conflict is between a corrupt elite and a sizable minority of medieval Islamists.

Regardless of who wins, the country is not a reliable ally in the war on terror and can’t be trusted by its own people to do the right thing in confronting poverty and the backwardness of religion.

Gorilla says: “Until religion is scratched from politics, we’ll always have to deal with zealots itching for a fight!”