Gorilla's Blog

The Palestinians, that is, who have reached an Eqyptian-brokered “reconciliation” that will lead to new elections and a new government.

The big immediate question is: who will win? Fatah or Hamas?

And it is that Palestinian choice that will determine the medium-term negotiating possibilities, if any:

If Hamas wins, the US will have to make a choice: deal with a “terrorist” organization or accept that peace is as dead in the water as it appears to be.

If Fatah wins, Hamas will have to make a choice: cut the best deal you can for Palestinian statehood or resume lobbing bombs into Israel.

The current Israeli government is clearly not serious about peace and will not make or be pressured into any choice: they will try to fix the election for Fatah, but ultimately if Hamas wins, Israel will continue happily along the intransigent trail for another decade until demographics force a deal.

Gorilla says: “It’s not exactly hopeful, but it’s not completely hopeless!”

When the Israeli Foreign Minister says his party will do everything in its power to block the slowdown in illegal settlement construction, the current “peace process” is already dead in the water.

Throughout their political careers, neither the Foreign Minister nor the Prime Minister of Israel have ever displayed the slightest interest in making a deal with the Palestinians. The parties they represent in the Knesset will not allow them to halt settlement construction. This is spun by these Israeli politicians into a concern about “security”, allowing the current Israeli government to pursue precisely the same approach to peace that is displayed by Hamas.

The US cannot be an honest broker for peace until and unless there is a willingness to exact a price from the Israelis for their continued intransigence and a willingness to deal with Hamas as a legitimate representative of the Palestinians. There is no political support in the US for doing anything against Israel and uncertain political support within the Palestinian community for the “two state solution”.

So the dance of the peace fairies continues.

Dramatic gestures are needed from the Administration, such as a referendum asking Palestinians once and for all to support two states, bilateral talks with Iran to address the nuclear issue and Hamas to address the peace process, a summit of Arab leaders to recognize the state of Israel, and a willingness to substantially reduce foreign aid to Israel if their intransigence about settlements, Jerusalem, etc. continues.

Given the Administration’s historical preference to avoid confrontation on far more important issues, like the fate of the US economy, this round of “talks” will be as fruitless as all the others since 1978 have been.

Gorilla says: “If you don’t put up, you might as well shut up!”

Here they go again, the Israelis and Palestinians in yet another round of peace negotiations.

And the lack of seriousness on both sides remains.

The Israelis simply will not tear down the illegal settlements they’ve been building for 30 years. There is also no evidence whatever that the current Israeli prime minister and his extremist coalition have any tangible commitment to negotiations, much less to an agreement.

The Palestinians remain completely divided, as this week’s Hamas attack on Israeli settlers demonstrates. What’s needed is a referendum to decide once and for all whether there is substantial popular support for the two-state solution. What’s feared is that the Palestinians may vote no.

President Obama’s hands are tied. There’s no support in the US for bringing the Israelis into line, and no belief in the Middle East that the US is an honest broker.

Gorilla says: “Extend and pretend is all that’s on offer these days!”

Whichever side you care to select in the Middle East peace negotiations!

The Palestinians remain divided, the Israeli government has zero interest in a permanent settlement, and the United States is too busy floundering around in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen.

Gorilla thinks: “Hard to divide the pie when on everyone’s faces!”