Posts Tagged ‘Portugal’

And It’s On To Iberia

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

Angela Merkel is desperate to save the Euro!

Greece is one problem, but Portugal and especially Spain are much bigger problems. The spreads on Iberian debt relative to German bunds are at or approaching post-EMU highs.

Beyond crushing fiscal austerity at a time of puny global economic growth, what’s really needed is a recognition that either the so-called peripheral states or Germany itself must exit the euro.

Chancellor Merkel at last appears to understand what’s at stake, but she’s not yet willing to accept that Euroland must become smaller and allow devaluation by the most troubled, soon-to-be non-Euroland countries.

The alternative is large scale default, followed by the collapse of the European banking system.

Gorilla says: “What spreads even faster than swine flu? The contagion of German complacency!”

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Bonding At Club Med

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

The test of Euroland begins in earnest

The bond market for Greece, Portugal, and Spain, and possibly Ireland and Italy, is nearing collapse.

There’s not much belief in:

*The ability of the Greeks to undertake serious fiscal and monetary reform.

*The ability of the Portuguese to refinance an external debt that’s larger than Greece’s.

*The willingness of Germany and other Euroland countries to finance a large scale rescue package on the order of $200-250/billion over the next 3 years.

*The capacity of the European Central Bank to do anything other than fight non-existent inflation.

Will there be haircuts? Inevitably, on the order of 20-30%, which may then risk the solvency of several European banks.

Will Euroland survive? Not likely in its present form, the question is who will leave and who will be pitched out.

What about America? Time to ask the wizards of Wall Street just how much they stand to lose in this debacle.

Gorilla says: “The free drinks are gone, you’ll have to pay up for and with more than peanuts!”

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Less Porto In A Storm

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Portugal: downgraded!

Does it matter?

No, because the ratings agencies themselves are not worth a moment’s attention. They are riddled with conflicts of interest and helped contribute to both the housing and financial meltdowns that are plaguing the globe.

Yes, because Euroland is again exposed as an unworkable monetary union. Portugal can’t devalue its way out, while the Germans will neither finance nor consume their way out.

Eventually, a deal will be struck, because Spain and Italy, both far larger economies, are also on the brink and will need massive amounts of financing if the debt markets don’t cooperate.

Gorilla thinks: “The end of the escudo is crudo!”

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The Euroland Bank

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Austerity is promised, but loans are ponied up

Spain and Portugal are next, there’s little doubt about that now!

Gorilla thinks: “I guess they call it the PIIGS in clover society!”

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