Gorilla thinks these things will be remembered about this week:
*The health care legislative package gets put off another month. Gorilla thinks the chance of meaningful health care reform, with a public option, a shift away from a fee-based system, and effectiveness studies, is now less than 50-50.
*The US economy continues to sputter. We are still a long way from the beginnings of real job growth, that is when new unemployment claims fall below 350-400,000/week. Gorilla believes the unemployment rate will hit 10% in the next 3 months and remain above 10% for the next 2 years.
*The Chinese are beginning to look like the world beaters of the 21st century. Their scientific research isn’t restricted by ethical considerations or wingnuts. Their decision to allocate $2 trillion to building up Chinese business presence in emerging markets will have a profound impact on how the world financial system is reordered. Gorilla thinks we’re heading towards a new bipolarity.
*Wheel spinning continues with respect to North Korea and Iran. Neither is a serious threat to the US, but we can’t seem to figure out how to deal with them. Once either country sorts out its internal politics, Gorilla would not be surprised to see Hillary Clinton in Pyongyang or Tehran in the next 12 months.
*Denial continues with respect to Afghanistan and Pakistan. We don’t seem to have an exit strategy, and we clearly don’t have enough troops to win on the ground (whatever winning may mean) in Afghanistan. We can’t seem to get out of our own way to encourage Pakistan to fight radical Islamic terrorism. Gorilla believes we will be negotiating with the Taliban, declaring victory and getting out of Afghanistan within the next 12-18 months. Gorilla thinks we’ll try for some kind of grand regional bargain with India and Pakistan, so as to free up Pakistani troops to fight in Waziristan and Baluchistan.
*Racism and political corruption remain as American as apple pie and as unremitting as torture. We’d like to believe we’ve moved on, but facts and events, large and small, keep getting in the way. Gorilla firmly calls the plus ca change side of the coin.