Posts Tagged ‘stimulus’

A Mess Is The Best Guess

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Paul Krugman says it’s now even money we’ll have a lost decade like Japan.

Brad de Long says there’s a 5 percent chance of a Great Depression-like downturn, bigger than the one we’ve just experienced.

Martin Wolf says we’ve again missed the boat on speaking plainly to the Chinese.

Today’s numbers say that, despite wasting billions on cash for clunkers and home buying tax credits, deflation remains a big problem, the housing bust will continue, oh, and unemployment remains above 10%.

The need for action is very clear, but that’s not what our leaders are offering.

Instead, they seem worried about utterly trivial things, from an extra $100 billion/year to expand health insurance to social program deficits in the years after 2030.

Anything in the here and now appears to be well beyond their imaginations.

Goingbackwardville and Movingforwardville are currently intersecting in Oblivionville.

Congress should be passing a second stimulus, to the tune of at least $1 trillion ($2-3 trillion would be even better!), with emphasis on the following: job creation via a new WPA with emphasis on road building, home and corporate energy efficiency, and public transit, guaranteeing state government deficits for the next 3 years, and continuing unemployment and unemployed health care benefits for the next 2 years.

The President needs to start leading, not engaging in further meaningless rhetoric and cautious poll gazing.

Gorilla is worried: “Round tables don’t put food on the table, and pointy heads only burrow deeper into the sand!!!”

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The Trip To Woeful

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Paul Krugman provides a good excerpt about how the stimulus package was crafted, taken from the recent New Yorker article about Larry Summers.

As pretty much anyone with a brain and a smattering of economics 101 could have told you, the stimulus package was way too small and contained too many stupid, ineffective tax cuts.

Prognosticating White House geniuses like Summers once again missed the boat: the economy’s doing far worse than they thought it would.

Practically speaking, the Administration negotiated with itself, put in an opening bid that was far too low, and got less than half of what was needed from the Congress.

This woefully inadequate stimulus will be mostly spent out by the end of next year, and the Administration will be blamed when unemployment remains high and the economy remains stuck in neutral. A few hundred billion is small beer when the output gap is on the order of $4 trillion.

The same thing happened with respect to health care.

The simplest, most sensible solution, bringing everyone into Medicare and getting some control at last over things like the insurance companies, absurd patent protections for Big Pharma, and ridiculously high salaries for a closed shop union of doctors, was seen as too radical and discarded before the first bill was even drafted. What’s coming to pass from the Congressional sausage machine is very much nothing.

The time to be bold was in the first 2 months of the Administration. Obama will never again be as popular as he was then, nor will America be as hungry for decisive leadership after 8 years of total failure.

But the President decided to be cautious and inclusive, got absolutely nothing for it, and appears at present to be little better than a more eloquent version of Jimmy Carter.

One hopes that Movingforwardville will wake up, get serious and lead, but the overwhelming evidence is that Goingbackwardville still rules the roost when it comes to actual policies, from state secrets to Wall Street non-regulation to kicking the can down the road.

Gorilla observes: “The tragedy is that the stakes are very high, but the gamblers are very small!”

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Recharging With Stimulus

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

$2.4 billion in stimulus funds is going to the development of advanced batteries, and particularly as this relates to the next generation of American-produced electric cars.

Now stimulus is a good thing, it will help in desperately lousy parts of Michigan and Indiana, but this particular stimulus, like “cash for clunkers” , is also a back door subsidy for the failing Big Three. It’s not that battery technology wasn’t available or couldn’t be applied, it’s that US automakers went for the big profits of large, polluting SUVs and there’s no evidence that they’ll do any better in the future.

Toyota incidentally already builds electric cars in America (the Prius is #4 in the top 10 list of cars being bought with clunkers), but alas not in states where Democrats rule the roost. Toyota will not lie down and die while awaiting Michigan’s latest battery charge.

The whole green energy future depends on one thing: the price of fossil fuels rising sufficiently to make alternative energy economically viable. The best way to do this is via a consumption tax, but the brave new world envisioned by our President doesn’t include punishments for profligate behavior.

Summing up his philosophy: We all get to keep things as they are, unless we don’t, but none of this will happen on my watch anyway, so enjoy feeling good about what little we’re doing!

Gorilla plugs away: “Better off stimulating lithium consumption, might reduce the ions of anger among downtrodden nutjobs at health care town halls!”

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