These were the events in Gorilla’s world that mattered this week:
Climate Change: Another week of faintly ridiculous posturing. The President proposes a pollution reduction he hasn’t got the votes for, while the Chinese advance a crafty formula that won’t cut pollution at all. There just isn’t the political will anywhere to do something about a problem that’s not coming around the corner for a couple of decades. Gorilla thinks there will be progress only when progress is necessary, roughly sometime after 2030.
Economy: The economy’s anemic growth continues. While there was good news in the form of reduced unemployment claims, the fact remains that unemployment will remain sky high until the economy grows a lot more than 2%. Gorilla still believes it will take a decade to get unemployment down below 7%.
Iraq: Stalled out on its way to an election in January. The underlying differences among Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds have not been addressed, but for the US that’s no longer a problem. Gorilla suggests we’ll be out as planned by 2011, and Iraq will start the next round of civil war in 2012.
Iran: Still lots of posturing, but the outlines of a deal are in sight. This will be some combination of inspections in Iran and the Russians helping out with nuclear technology. The Israelis will not be happy, but will not do anything. Why the US is not seizing the opportunity to make a buck on developing Iran’s nuclear industry, a la India, remains a mystery. Gorilla says a deal will be completed in 2010, and Obama will visit Iran in 2013.
Dubai: Real estate bubbles don’t work any better in the Middle East than they do in the US. Perhaps this time the creditors will actually take a haircut. Gorilla puts forth the theory that creditors may use this default to get more guarantees from the government, particularly with massive CRE losses on the horizon and another round of the residential housing bust occurring simultaneously. Spoons therefore should be locked away.
Thanksgiving: Americans have little to be thankful for in terms of political leadership, but Gorilla observes that fecklessness is next to bloggedness in the world he inhabits.
