Posts Tagged ‘US Economy’

Failing Econ 101 Again

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

More business tax cuts, our President thinks this is just the trick to get the economy moving!

Businesses, on the other hand, aren’t spending and aren’t hiring because of one simple reason: a lack of demand.

The output gap’s likely over $1 trillion, and there’s a huge oversupply of everything, from cars to strip malls to houses.

The only way that gets reduced is for government to start spending, first and foremost on hiring people. People with jobs are people who spend money, pay taxes, and stoke demand.

Tax cuts are the least effective means of economic stimulus, because they don’t do much more than move purchases forward.

Once they’ve expired, or once they’re built into the future reckoning of corporate finance types, things will start to go south again.

There are hundreds of billions available to the President via TARP and the Congress need not even be consulted: He could start pumping up demand tomorrow by hiring a few million unemployed workers to do things like painting roofs white, building roads, installing energy efficient lightbulbs in schools, fixing leaky pipes, and making mortgage payments.

Instead, the sense is that the Administration is flailing around with peanuts proposals that have no chance of being enacted by Congress, while the very party that destroyed this country’s economy is looking like getting back into power!!!

Gorilla says: “Time for our economic geniuses to take Econ 101 again!”

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Better Than Nothing

Monday, September 6th, 2010

$50 billion for infrastructure projects is better than nothing, but nothing is what the Administration will get.

I can’t understand why they don’t use the unspent TARP money to fund a jobs program: doesn’t require Congressional approval and shows more seriousness about the economy.

A couple of hundred billion to hire people would be a big plus for the economy (there’s zero demand out there, people!) and very popular with the voters.

Extending stupid, ineffective business tax credits and proposing programs that have zero chance of Congressional passage is a complete waste of time.

Gorilla says:”Better to run on providing jobs than to run on about how much worse off we might have been!”

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Hiring Anyone?

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

Well, unemployment at 9.6%, not enough jobs being added to account for population growth, much less economic growth, and the prospect of a big defeat in November.

So what will the Administration do?

If it’s another round of worthless business tax cuts, no substantial stimulus (at least $500 billion is needed, $1 trillion would be better), and no government jobs program, you’ll know they aren’t any more serious about tackling the worst economy in 70 years than the Israelis and Palestinians are about 60 years of a “peace process”.

Gorilla: “It’s depressing to realize that indifference is the only policy position!”

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Helicopter Ben Hovers In Place

Friday, August 27th, 2010

Well, the Fed admits at last that things aren’t going as swimmingly as possible during Recovery Summer, and pledges to do more if more needs to be done.

Mostly, this will consist of buying more long-term Treasuries, but it might also consist of a more strongly worded statement about short-term rates staying low for a long time and a reduction in the interest rate the Fed pays on excess reserves.

What it won’t include is a raising of the inflation target, which the Fed has missed consistently on the downside for the past 2 years.

Central bankers around the world still seem petrified by non-existent inflation.

Helicopter Ben seems convinced that deflation isn’t a problem, but he also says that “central bankers alone can’t solve the world’s economic problems”.

Gorilla says: “Ben doesn’t think we’re Japan, but the jury’s still out!”

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Quote Of The Day

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Jay Brinkman, chief economist, Mortgage Bankers Association: “It takes a paycheck to make a mortgage payment”.

Gorilla translates: “Except in Washington, where you can be unemployed, foreclosed, and out of benefits, and nobody will do a damn thing for you”.

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Off The Cliff

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

As Atrios always says: “Nobody could have predicted…”

Durable goods: up 0.3% (consensus forecast: up 3.0%)

Those not transporting us to nowhere: down 3.8% (consensus forecast: up 0.5%)

New home sales to come, the consensus is up 334,000, the guess here is 250,000!

Gorilla says: “Acapulco, here we come!!!”

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Half A Million And Counting

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Unemployment claims: only going up!!!

Government response: only doing nothing!!!

The lethal level of misery and stupidity is unprecedented in Gorilla’s lifetime.

And it will only get worse if the Know Nothing Party picks up seats, if not houses, this fall.

What’s needed immediately is a jobs program of at least $450 billion, which would reduce unemployment dramatically, raise tax revenues, and rebuild this country’s Third World infrastructure.

Why the President doesn’t propose this, when every reputable economist is saying we need more stimulus, is unfathomable.

If the Know Nothings vote no, you’ve got the perfect theme for running this fall: “I tried to help but those clowns couldn’t be bothered!”

Gorilla says: “A firmer Barack can overcome one termer Barack!”

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Shorter Beltway Mosque Narrative

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Know Nothings: “We are a racist, xenophobic party that wants its racist, xenophobic base to vote in droves come November!”

Democrats: “We are a dithering, cowardly party that wants to lose in November!”

Gorilla: “In November, nobody will vote on any issue other than the US economy!”

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No Gas In This Tank

Friday, August 13th, 2010

Retail sales: strip out higher gas prices in the summer driving season, and they fell for the second straight month!

Deflation: Core CPI increased 0.1%, year over year the increase is 0.9%, or well below the Fed’s ridiculously low inflation target!

Gorilla says: “Demand, demand, demand, wherefore art thou demand?”

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Grim and Grimmer

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Unemployment claims: Nearly 500,000 last week!

Export and import prices: Falling!

Fed action: Little or nothing!

Congressional action: You must be joking!

Deflation: A clear and present danger!

Gorilla: “Will we ever get a grip in a double dip?”

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